"An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made, in a narrow field."

- Niels Henrik David Bohr

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

End of Day Journal (5-4-2010)

Funky day today. I found myself a little frustrated.

NT is showing a goofy account performance report, not sure if it is a setting or a bug. The account balance is +$229.92 end of day. NT is showing 259 trades today (divided by 3 = 96 trades approx.), making it fewer trades per hour than yesterday. But still a lot.

Here is the account progress chart:



Here is the story - I will have to break it up into morning and afternoon session with the 1 min HA charts. Morning went from 7:30 till 9:30-ish. All times are local:

Shorted a new low on ANF. exited and back in a few minutes later as it touched a new low again. Stopped out on this one, but re-entered next bar till the bottom. Tried to re-enter again as it passed new low, stopped and reversed. Exited on the stall and tried to re-enter a little later. In and out on the top until it decided to head back down. Besides the in and out at the top, the stock knew what it was doing:


APTK was on my MA and it popped up on the TDA alert at 8:32 on a long bar. I bought in and captured a little bit of profit (+$15):


Late entry on CNX's new low and stopped out. I tried to re-enter after the volume spike only to stop out again. Came back in later for about $0.30 gain. With the default stops came out negative overall (-$84.68):


JEC touching the low and stopped out. Re-entered for a slow trend. Unfortunately slippage and the stop ate most of the gain. Re-entered a little later for a small drop:


New low on MEE, exited on a tight stop. Tried to re-enter and stopped out. Tried again later as it touched, only to fizzle. Tried again as it broke near term support and stopped out again. Came in late after a big bar with a stop:



TDA long bar alert on SLXP. I entered long as it broke a new high. It jumped up immediately - then I noticed the $0.10 spread so I closed:


SNDK touched a new low, waited for the reverse and exited nicely. Jackpot at 9:02 (covered about 90% of the move):


New low on SWN which broke even on the following stop. Shorted again (a little bit early but it worked) and exited as it stalled. Lots of green to be had 5 minutes later:


I was watching VRX on the 7:20 high but didn't buy in. As it came up for air again I waited and decided to short (a little early on this as well, but it worked). Caught a little bit of action, but the stop could have been tighter with the slow drop (or maybe I could argue it the other way...):


That was it for the morning. The account was up $714 and I was feeling pretty good about trading.


I tried to short after a long candle on ANF. I let the stop ride after several greens and got stopped out with some pretty bad slippage. Shorted again, with the same play. Tried again later with another stop. Finally called the long - but came out negative on slip and the sharp drop (+$7.29 total end of day on ANF):



Shorted new low on ANR. shorted on the default stop ($0.12) and bought back in later. Called the reverse, but came out negative on the trade afte the stop and slip. Called a long again which came out just ahead of even on the trailing stop. Re-entered long and rode it to the top. Tried to call long again and stopped out on the $0.21 candle. I reversed, tightened the stop because I was getting paranoid and ran amok. Tried to short again only to get stopped out again. Yuck (NT is showing a -$1746.46 on ANR, end of day. I know this is not right):



Shorted the new long on AXP and stopped out as I followed ($-29.24):



Shorted CAM (five minute was after a long red followed by a long doji. In the right direction but stopped out on the 15 point candle as I followed. I tried again later on to stop out on the default (+$20.25):


COF had been dropping for awhile on new lows so I jumped in. Kept going for a bit on volume, but then changed its mind. I didn't reverse for the $0.60 move (-$48):



JEC was breaking new lows and I caught the bottom (-$43.81 for the day):


Glancing at the 5 minute, it appeared that MEE wanted to go down (5 minute red hammer). It shot down and I was slow to bring the stop. But I missed the big move and a lot of profit  (-$139.91 for the day):


TDA long bar alert on POZN, which happened to be on the MA list and breaking a new high (5 minute chart - HA does not always reflect the 'true' high/low). I bought in and managed to lose a lot of profit on a sloppy stop and slip (+$20):



SLXP was on my list and I came in late on a new high. Stopped out on the trailing and the spike in price action. I shorted later and rode it down to the hiccup  then came in much later. Reversed on the exit only to stop out (+$126 for the day):


Shorted SNDK and I never moved the stop. Shorted again and again had a sloppy stop. Tried to reverse and got stopped out again. I should of tried again - and again (!), but I was getting a little paranoid (+$524 for the day):


USG seemed determined to go down, so I bought in on the new low. Tried to reverse on the exit and I got stopped out for a loss on the trade (+$80):



Bought into the new high on VRX and stopped out on the trailing. I reversed two minutes later only to stop out. Shorted later and stopped. Caught the end of day up tick and closed 2 minutes prior to end of day (+$74):



Yipper. Watching that $700 disappear this afternoon was not very fun. At one point I was down -$64 in the afternoon. In retrospect I probably should have not checked it. I am not sure what bothered me most: watching the account balance dwindle, getting stopped out before the move - or seeing the positive trade disappear and go negative. Some long price action in the one minute candle this afternoon and I watched several over $0.20 gains dwindle to next to nothing or negative within two bars: MEE, POZN, ANR, ANF, VRX. Probably the good trades melting away. A lot of muttering to be heard in the office this afternoon. I tried not to let it bother me and kept plugging along.

Something I just noticed as I was typing up that list. Almost all of these changes occured on the minute before the 5 minute mark (4 minutes and counting). If I would have made it a point to exit on at the end of the 5 minute bar with some signs of a stall - or a radical price change, I think it would have helped the bottom line quite a bit. Interesting - and coincides with what Scott says over and over again - watch the end of the 5 minute bar. And it was often accompanied by a change in direction. I couldn't have caught them all, but an informal examination says it would have improved the odds.

Part of this might just be the afternoon chop. Interestingly enough - a lot of these stocks had alternating red and green five minute bars. This should be a signal.

I think I need to pay more attention to the 5 minute for my entries. I had a few bad exits, but I think this problem would decrease with more judicious entries. That - and tighter stops on the trail - especially in these kinds of conditions. I think there were very few bad stops - i.e., stops that did not signal a change in direction.

Another day tomorrow. Feel free to point out any problems you see - I appreciate the constructive criticism.

2 comments:

  1. Is this a full time thing you are doing, or just a few times during the day?

    ReplyDelete
  2. I am committing about 3.5 to 4 hours a day to trading right now. Have been for a couple of weeks. But this is not my primary source of income. I work from home and my job is flexible enough to allow me to wiggle in the time.

    But today (5/5) I spent all day - the blog entry took a bit.

    ReplyDelete