End of Day Journal (5-19-2010)

Summary:

Blah - what a day.

Did very well in not looking at the PnL. And I lost a lot of money for it: -$1672.77.

Traded in 4 stocks today, and got beat up pretty badly in them. Not one showed a positive realized profit at EOD. Here is the summary:

I would be very discouraged - except that as I was going thru the details on these trades, I realized that my PC's clock was off by 15 seconds today - 15 seconds behind NYSE time. This made a very big difference: I was not looking at the correct candle patterns. And - not only that, but as I was trying to trade on the 5 minute candle (as per FNG's strategy today), on CAT and TNA, I was timing the reversal's wrong - and timing the entry is critical. Also - this messed the stops up considerably.

V was the biggest loss today, but I am not sure if the 15 second delay can be blamed. Perhaps - I would like to compare some good charts to what I had/have. The stops may have been different. But it definitely made a difference on TNA and CAT. CAT I was in and out of, and reversing a lot. In fact I nailed pretty much every reversal - I would watch it go positive, only to fall back and stop. Time after time after time. I was trying to be patient and wait out the trend, but it was not working. I would have been way better off scalping. The movers go. The fizzlers don't. I think I will pick this up more and more - they just behave differently.

One thing I learned today. I have decided no more middle of 5 minute candle entries - unless it is a runner. I need to wait for the candle to change, or just before, and place the entry. Exit at any time, but be ready on the 5 minute mark.

The details are brutal. I had a hard time following them and I have everything right in front of me. I traded 5 minute charts, but I posted 1 minute on top of the 5 minute charts in this entry for a better visual. Still very hard to follow and, again, this is primarily meant to be a personal exercise: to get inside my head and figure out what I was thinking.

I am thinking no more reversals except on the 5 minute mark, and only on strong momo.

Best of trading tomorrow!

Details:

Here is the 5 minute on CAT (-$94.78):

I traded CAT a lot, so I am breaking it up into several 1 minute/5 minute chart combos.

Shorted CAT on the new low with strong market support (2:15), I reversed as it approached the stop (0:37), and got stopped out  (3:33) (0/2). I shorted 7 seconds later, and got stopped out a few candles over - as I bumped the stop up a few cents (0/3). I need to refrain from reversing unless it follows some big movement. Each one of the entries went in the direction it was supposed to go, but it just fizzled and retraced. There was plenty of market movement over this time, but CAT seemed indifferent:

Finally called a short correctly (0:15) - but I hesitate to say this was a good entry, i.e., the stock did not exhibit a high probability pattern on the 5 minute chart. Actually - I was under the impression that this was going to be a day trend, small pieces at a time (0/4) I reversed (long) on this as it began to retrace (1:57) (1/5), and reversed yet again (short) near the end of the same candle (4:51) (1/6). This got stopped out at the beginneing of the next candle (0:52), which turned into another reverse (long now) (0:52) (1/7). This proceeded to get stopped out on the same 5 minute candle, a few seconds later (1:17) (1/8). Finally went short as it looked like it was making up its mind (same candle, 2:15) (1/9). This hit the stop, and I took a long position (0:50) (2/10). Finally, a trend. Reversed (going short) as it began to retrace on the high and a start of a new candle (0:15) (note: this is showing the trade on the previous 5 minute candle - while IB reports it on the new... interesting - did not re-set my clock today) (2/10). Reversed and going long with 1000 shares (1:38) (2/11). Stopped with a reverse again (3:32). This got stopped - and I did not reverse.

Believe it or not I was tired of getting stopped out. Just when it makes a nice 70 tick run.

Went long after the strong green (1:01) (2/12), and waited too long on the exit (4:59), but I captured part of the 70 tick run. Shorted right away (4:59 - it was a reverse) and then waited too long to exit (0:23) with another reverse (and going long) (3/13). Spooked exit for a scalp, right before it shoots up. If you look you will see that every reverse was in the right direction, positive for at least one minute, often several more, one as much as 20 ticks. Tired of seeing the profit evaporate, so I sold. Scalping would have done very well on this:

I entered this sequence trying to go long (3:34) (4/14). The preceding candle had a relatively long bottom wick , and the entry was green as I took a position. Stopped out. Went long again on a green candle, following the red 5 minute hammer (1:26) (5/15). It went up 20 ticks from my entry, and started to retrace so I exited for a little over 5 ticks profit (3:03). Arrgh. Not one to give up, I shorted on the same candle as it looked to be headed down (0:07) (6/16) (again - the time discrepancy, I thought I was on the same candle - IB says the next candle had already started...). Finally some trending, and I covered as it looked to be stalling (0:17) (Again  - time discrepancy). On the next candle (1:16) I shorted again to stay in trend, and sold late for a scalp. I bought 6 seconds later (1:31) for the long (6/17), which stopped with a reverse (0:21) (6/18) - and this happened twice more with in the same 5 minute candle. The third reverse (same candle and going long) came away with a small profit and another reverse (short this time) (2:31) (err - call this 6/21 I guess) which got stopped in the same minute - but it was going in the right direction. So I shorted again (6/22) and got stopped out.  Ok - on the 11:40 5 minute candle, went short (0:30) (7/23) on the reversed green hammer. The short went my direction for all of about 26 seconds. I waited a bit and went long (8/24) as it looked consistent (1:02). Finally some more direction, with a discretionary exit and reverse (0:14) (9/25). Stopped on the next candle over which turned into a hammer. Two more reverses (1:05) (2:38) and finally got stopped out and quit for a bit (4:25). Shorted on the 12:00 candle (1:01 into it) (10/26) and doubled up later (0:34). Exited as it retraced. Long 8 seconds later with a stop:

Though I traded an awful lot on this, I am convinced that I was reading the stock correctly. Just no momo. Waiting for it to develop killed me. I should not have reversed as quickly though. Ony reverse when coming off a big move. The 15 second delay hurt this a lot in my opinion.

RL only had one trade. Good entry, coming off of the doji, but it got stopped after a brief positive sprint. A lot of slippage on the stop (-$97.53) (11/27):

TNA - trying the 5 minute move, starting with a short that got stopped out - but I went in right away again.  not going to detail this, FNG illustrated the drill in today's post. Again, I think the 15 second difference killed me on this. The first trade realized a profit. The 2nd, a little as I sold on a retrace. All the others were positive 30 to 40 ticks, but a lot turned around and got stopped.

I can't change this chart data - but I would love to see correct data on this to see how it worked out on the 'true' 5 minute data (-$256.14). Going to call all of these entries good (22/38):

Here is the V 5 minute chart (-$1226.29):

Shorted V as it turned red (1:23) off of the high, with great market support (23/39). Stopped out as it continued setting new highs. I reversed (4:52) (24/40) and immediately got stopped. So I shorted (0:10) (25/41) and got stopped (0:43). Went long in the same candle (1:11) (26/42) and got stopped on the next candle. Shorted about 35 seconds later (3:28) (26/43) and stopped in the same candle with a loose stop (4:08).

Shorted on the 8:10 candle (2:20) (26/44 - this entry should have been closer to the change in candle) and immediately stopped (2:28). Long on 8:30 (4:23) (26/45) and stopped out (1:20). I reversed right away and went short (1:21) (26/46) and stopped  on the next candle. Somehow I had a double entry - I think I pressed reverse position as it hit the stop - so a double whammy. It had been 10 ticks positive. Shorted one more time (0:02) (27/47) (this would of been a beautiful trade if done at the beginning of the candle), and stopped out.

Absolutely terrible: