"An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made, in a narrow field."

- Niels Henrik David Bohr

Monday, May 24, 2010

End of Day Journal (5-24-2010)

Summary:


The day started off with some very poor entries - I was not trading well. I managed to recover everything and then some with a great run on RIG, but after the noon-ish chop fest, I was reluctant to let the winners go in the afternoon.

Here is the account performance:


The account is +$83.84 meaning $133.29 in commissions (0.0041/share). The account was down a maximum of $409.15 and saw a profit high of $271.13 (w/o commissions).

DNDN and TNA were the biggest losers and probably the most poorly traded today. I had some unrealized profits on TNA that turned into stops, but not a lot. However, after these I made the conscious decision to take whatever profit I could which kept me out of some great runs on RIG and SLB.

Lesson: let trending stocks trend or stop out.

The volume characterization from yesterday seemed to hold today, a good example on RIG at the 8:05 (see highlights - best trade of the day). RIG was trending down, and the rebound ended on declining volume. Holding till the volume spike after the return to the trend would have worked as well, but I was out a little earlier. I used this a couple of times today:




TNA was just a rough game today - I could not get a decent read. Part of the day it was actually leading the market (my 11:10 entry) and the long wicks made for some frustrating action. I had several good calls on the entries with some direction, but it would fizzle and range all over. All the pivots were very sloppy and stops were filled with plenty of slip. Perhaps the 3x ETF's are just hard to trade on choppy days - I think I am going to wait for good market movement days before trading them again.

Details:


I went long on BIDU on the price point and as the candle went green (1:26) (1/1). The stop was nicked a few candles over (-$57.56):


Short on DNDN at the candle change and after the long green with plenty of volume (0:03) (2/2). I covered and went long (0:36) (3/3) as it faltered. This got stopped on the same candle (3:15). Went long on the next candle as it broke the high (0:21) (3/4) and got stopped about a minute later (terrible entry as evidenced by no good place for the stop, hence it was in the middle of nowhere). Shorted on the candle change (0:02) (4/5) after the long green and volume spike. The stop was very poorly placed, and I reversed as it touched (0:54) (4/6). This was stopped about 2.5 minutes into the candle. Plain to see that I had no read here at all. Later I tried to short after the doji (1:36) (4/7). Poor entry (too far from the price point) and poor stop (-$251.66):


Shorted FCX after the doji and on the price point (0:30) (5/8) - against general market sentiment, but in line with what I thought the stock was doing for the day (-$54.01):


Shorted RIG with no justification except that I thought it was headed down for the day (0:25) (5/9). I had some direction, but stopped out as it touched the prior low (30 ticks unrealized at best). Much better entry the second time around (on the price point) (2:18) (6/10). Doubled up as broke the low (1:11) (7/11) and exited as it rebounded off the new low and green on the new candle (0:03). I went long 8 seconds later (8/12) with a great tight stop. Went long on the next candle off of the near doji and on the price point (1:19) and stopped again on some well placed risk. Short on the 11:05 candle and price point (0:39) (9/13). Discretionary exit as my read on the market was saying grab what I can get. Shorted as it bumped against the day's low and seemingly determined to head down the rest of the day with market support (2:43) (10/14). 15 ticks unrealized and stopped. Shorted the a little early on the next candle change (4:51) (10/15) with another discretionary exit. Short again on the 12:10 candle after the doji and on the price point (1:07) (11/16) with the stop violated on the same candle. Long on the 12:40 candle (0:02) (12/17) with a discretionary reverse given the rest of the market. Discretionary exit on the next candle change - unfortunately, much too early (+$637.54):


Short on SLB (0:02) (13/18) with another discretionary 'grab what I can get' exit. Shorted again on the price point (1:23) (14/19) and managed to hold on a little longer this time. Went short just before the candle change (4:58) and plenty of market support (market was coming off of a low volume long green candle). This got stopped with good placement. Tried to short the next candle change (12:05 candle) given general market sentiment (0:04) (15/20) and stopped again with excellent placement. I reversed some 8 seconds later on the price point and exited on a discretionary as the market seemed determine to drop. Shorted the 12:10 (0:06) (16/21) then exited for a scalp. Shorted the top of the 12:30 (0:05) (17/22)  and carried it to the next change (0:00). I then went short on the price point (0:55) (18/23) and carried it just past the next candle change (0:08) (+$360.72):



Long on TNA after the gapped change in candle (0:09) (18/24) and hence poorly placed stop. I didn't believe it was going down, so I went long again (3:49) (18/25) and stopped again. Long after the doji and on the price point (0:25) and got stopped with slip (6 ticks) on the next candle as it went up and then changed it's mind (31 ticks unrealized at best). Short on the change to the 8:50 (0:07) (18/26 - not a good price point) and stopped. I tried to short again just prior to candle change (4:54) (19/27) but got stopped as it broke thru the previous high. I tried again (0:22) (20/28) (30 ticks best unrealized) and stopped out pretty much right after the next candle change (0:07). This is when I started collecting any profit I could get.

Shorted just prior to the 11:10 candle change (4:56) (21/29) with a very poorly placed stop. Long just after the 12:20 change (0:20) (21/30) and some indecision (16 ticks best unrealized) with another loose stop.

TNA and long wicks are just not a good combo.

I shorted on the new low (rather late) (0:54) (21/31) and too far away from the price point - so I exited as it retraced.  Later long on the candle change (expecting a squeeze) (0:02) (22/32). Nice stop with a reverse (1:15) (23/33) for the one profitable trade today on TNA (all of 6 ticks) (-$551.19):

1 comment:

  1. the fcx was unreal, down to lows,back up, down to lows again. i was looking at that chart thinking, that is some volatility if only i could get it right. it did have one pretty big volume bar at 1130 which i should have caught. forward we march into tomorrows trades

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