"An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made, in a narrow field."

- Niels Henrik David Bohr

Monday, May 3, 2010

End of Day Journal (5-1-2010)

Traded on paper this morning, came away with +$500, so decided to go live this afternoon. Happy to say things went off without a hitch application wise.

Here is how the account did (live trading):



-$20. Meh. I had been up over $700, but the chop in the last hour of the day (12:15-ish to 12:30-ish) kept stopping out the positions.

I meant to trade the top EMA(7, high) - EMA(7,Low) >= $1.50; but they were holdovers from the morning trading. I opted for the single broker license on NT, and was not able to connect TDA - even though I was only trading IB live. This put me up against the ticker limit and the historical pacing limit from IB, so I had to lose several instruments in the MA. This was somewhat annoying so I removed several instruments from the MA. I upgraded to the multi-broker lease after hours for tomorrow.

Here are the charts:

Long on a 'new-ish high' on ANR. Then I just kept following it. I got out at the top, tried to get back in, stopped, went short, stopped, and short right away again. I kept the stop tight and it clicked thru about half way thru the drop. I went short again and rode it the rest of the way down. Stopped out several times on the chop. Good order execution, but a lot of movement in the one minute range (-$21.96):



Buying the trend on AOL and stopped out. Tried to buy the new low but it failed (-$69):



Shorted the new high on CAM. Reversed, exited and back in (times two). Got the reverse at the top, exited on the tight stop, re-entered and caught the rest of the drop. Ensuing chop with a little more capture on the last two trades (+$637.95):


Bought into the trend on CNX, rode it to the top and reversed, rode it down. This one I should of kept watching, +-$0.50 moves followed (+$43.20):




New high on ESV. Barely hit the stop and I tried to re-enter, only to stop out again ($0.22 moves on the minute). Another long and stop. Caught a little bit on the last trade finally. Another one I should have been watching ($-284.63):


Tried to buy into the trend on NE only to pretty much catch the bottom. Shorted again on the dip with a stop, and reversed a couple of minutes later. Shorted at the top, out on a tight stop. When QQQQ and SPY dropped at ~12:05, everything dropped with it. The last trade was on the entry stop (-$55.71):



Shorted NOV late on the 12:05 drop, stopped out when I tightened on the big drop two bars later. Chop fest. Caught a little bit of action later, but exited early in the climb. The late long fizzled (-$144.72):


Long on the new high on SNDK and stopped out. Tried again later with another stop, and I shorted after the exit. out a little early on the spike. Tried to short again after the stall, but stopped out. Again, plenty of action to catch later, but this would have been a little sketchy (-$65.76):


Bought into the trend on VECO, only to get stopped out on the next bar - which happened to be the end of the 5 minute ($-59.99):



Interesting afternoon. I went into it pretty nervous - not wanting to get too emotional. The account was down over $200 on the first few trades, but as I mentioned earlier, it was over +$700 at one point. The last 40 minutes or so chopped away at everything.

Lessons?

ESV was the biggest loser. In retrospect I was betting against a long red on QQQQ and SPY. Probably not a good idea. The first trade stop loss execution on ESV also had $0.11 slippage which didn't help.

SNDK had quite a bit of slippage as well - but part of this may have been bid/ask spread, I can't remember. I need to remember to watch that a little better.

CAM showed a cumulative of +$1011.10 at one point. Looking at the chart I tried to short again after the big drop, that call was a little early. But it was followed by a long entry which was fighting against a market down trend. Probably 3 or 4 re-entries too many, the candles show +- $0.40 price action. If I would not have hesitated in reversing, it probably would have been all right. Another clue should have been the lack of flush ends on the HA's. I don't think I would have called the 12:23 re-entry any different.

Well - that was tough. I think over-analyzing might be a mistake. Some of the other stocks I had been trading (and quit watching) had nice movement. SNDK for example had fallen some by 12:02, but was ready for some more by 12:09 - I think it was trying to catch up? Likewise with ESV. Something to remember.

Also, hindsight says some of the entries were just not good., e.g., the 12:36 short on NE. I don't think that qualified for a high probability move.

Probably the biggest lesson, be ready for a reverse on the big move. And be ready for and try to stay out of chop after a big move.

And there always seems to be plenty of opportunity.

3 comments:

  1. Wow - glad you survived the day. I haven't read your blog a lot yet - found it because you posted on mine. Great blog, keep it up. We need more blogs where people are honest about their losers as well as winners. My only comment is to reduce the overall number of trades to allow more focus on each, for sure on a choppy day like today. Also, do whatever worked the most in paper trading and avoid whatever worked the least in paper trading, as well as try not to stay rational (real money has a way of affecting emotion strongly).

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  2. yee haw cowboy! you did some serious trading today. nice work. that is a hell of alot of trades. keep up man.

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  3. Thanks for the input gents!

    Yes - it was a lot of trades. NT is showing 196 trades! =/ But it is counting partial fills: e.g., most positions were filled in about 3-4 partial trades. Probably about 50-60 entries. Which is still a lot lol.

    Part of the problem was real money. I was feeling cold and clammy with a nervous gut before I started the real deal. So I tried to tune that part of me off. If I felt it coming back I kept thinking to myself: 'Just do your job. Click to enter and follow the price.' I didn't give as much thought to my entries as I should have.

    I remember regretting the early bounce entry on CAM, I didn't let the candle play out. 'It might work. Just do my job.' I think that set the stage for the next few trades.

    Call it first day jitters. I think it will show up differently today. All the best!

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