End of Day Journal (9-29-10)

Summary:

Today was a rough day.

I was about 15 minutes late for trading because I took the time to work thru the complete mediation/visualization routine. By the end of lunch I think NT was registering 39 trades with one 1 profitable trade. At 3:00 I was burned out and decided to place trades with no stops. I was aggravated, ticked off, and just wanted to see what would happen.

It didn't go well. Heh.


So, when it came time to do a blog entry, I decided to take all the charts that were on my watch list, turn the actual trades off, and go thru them all and mark entries from an EOD perspective. Almost nothing worked out this morning and I wanted to figure out what I was doing wrong with my entries. I then enabled entry viewing and reviewed everything for the Detail section.

As it turns out, my entries were dead nuts on. In fact, I have several that were better than EOD analysis (at least until the 3:00 point, which don't count). My exits weren't that great, and there were a few stocks (ADTN for one) that could of gone either way on the entries. But there were several where my stops were just too tight (CRM) and after I missed the initial entry I lost direction.

What to do?

I am going to try and limit the tight stops to fast momo candle changes and let other stops come in like they usually do. I think I may have been too focused on a tight stop rather than letting the price action tell me where to place the stop.


And one more thing. I was discussing with Fozz - the new TI scan setup (new highs/lows sorted by count, 2 windows for all day, 2 windows for periodic clearing) is giving me all kinds of trading options. Sticking to pretty charts and big movers is the way to go. Focus on them, let everything else go. I have a tendency to do this already (e.g., no trades on AAPL, AZO, and JKS today), but I think I could do a better job (e.g., CLF).

In summary - I was ready to give this trading gig up at EOD today, but after reviewing it looks like there is still some hope. And I can see progress from a couple of weeks ago.

Feel free to review, comment, critique, or pat me on the back =)

Trade well.

Details:

AAPL

No trade. Ugly chart.

ADTN

I see two entries.

I kept going long, expecting a return to the great looking morning. EOD I see support being broken on the bottom side for the rest of the day.

What should of been the clue?

The first three longs are all on EMA support and indecision on the 5 minute. There could probably even be an argument made for the 4th attempt as well. When this one failed I went short.

For now, I am going to use the 15 to call the momo in the morning spent (wide bars getting narrow with a top side wick). Not sure if this analysis will hold:

AMGN

EOD: I am calling a short on the 10:20 (before I usually start trading), and then two longs. By the time I get to the first long however, the chart is loosing some of the pretty factor.

Real trades: the long was a mistake, and I turned it around right away. I got stopped on the 12:15 and went long. I got stopped again and went short. And got stopped again.

At this point I am at 4 trades and according to the EOD analysis, I should be at one. The 12:15 long was good - resistance was broken, but the price returned. I was looking for momo and had a tight stop.

Looking at the difference between the 12:15 and the real break thru at 12:30, the 12:30 has a better volume bar - and perhaps that should be the signal - breaking S/R with volume.

Not a pretty later morning and rest of day chart, but I think the first long was viable:

AZO

I was watching it all day but the spread was crazy and the chart was ugly:

BHI

Humdinger. I actually traded this one better than the EOD analysis. Go figure.

Well... except for that last entry. And early on the exit I was too.

Interestingly enough, the support areas are marked by decreasing volumes:

CLF

Not a nice chart at all. I actually traded the last long, but by then I was in the no stop mode and let it come all the way back:

COG

Nice chart, no clear exit signal. There was some big short volume on the 12:15, but nothing came of it. I traded the last long and got bit:

CREE

First long is on lower volume. Next long is holding it's own. Exit on the 15. I went long on the 12:55, seeing some indecision on the 15:

CRL

I don't see much volume distinction on the real versus the failed breakthrus:

CRM

My stop was too tight. The chart lost all attraction by 12...

DD

Not a very nice chart, no movement. I was short at 2:55 but got stopped:

DO

Missed the first breakout, but caught it as it broke to new highs again. Then it came crashing back down.

Not sure how to call this chart. Volume uptick on the breakout and it didn't look back - until the 12:15 (big bump in volume)?

FLS

Ok up until my entries:

FSLR

Ugly & no entries.

FTI

Not a nice chart until late in the day. Pay no attention to the 3:00 on trades:

JKS

Not a nice chart, no trades. I think it caught my attention on the 11:00 momo:

LXK

Very nice. But of course I didn't trade it till the last breakthru. The breakthrus are not distinguished with volume:

MON

Choppy morning, but then registered some smoother action. I am calling the failed breakout a short opportunity, but I would be hard pressed to make that entry:

OIH

Breakouts not marked by volume:

RIG

Hmmm. Mixed bag. I traded the last breakout:

SNDK

Nice looking chart that deteriorated  after the morning session. I traded the 1:55 support - declining volumes again. Breakout on higher volumes - which I also traded  - failed:

SUN

TEN

Traded the short and got stopped before the candle change:

TSL

Nothing makes this chart attractive until it moves. I don't think I would of spotted it in time. Didn't trade it, and can't recall when I listed it:

UPL

Again - ignore the after 3:00 trades. Tight stop took me out of the first long:

URBN

Exit on the even dollar. I know this right?

ZMH

Not enough movement:

Metric Schmetric

All right - so here is the deal. I traded today by sticking to the plan as well as I could. And all I got for it was a bunch of profit left on the table and a big (paper) hole in my pocket... I tried to ride the trend, bringing the trailing stop on the 15's and got burned pretty badly.

So - is this a problem with my edge? Or is it a problem with me?

I am sure I did over 20 trades today, fearlessly I might add, and I ended up negative.

Now what??

I look at Scott's trades today and I want to curl up in a little ball and suck my thumb. You can't put any metrics on what he did today on NZ and AKAM - not the 15, not the market (opposite directions, and relatively close to the same entry/exit times), not the EMA (Fozz got a fib to work on NZ) and both of them were spot on perfect. Maybe that is the problem - metrics and the objective rules I am trying to make.

According to Douglas, objective entries are the thing - objectively and apathetically trade my criteria. He doesn't mention exit criteria in that context though, he talks about scaled exits and accomplishing a 'risk-free' trade. I have been using an objective criteria. I am not quite ready to go the scaled exit setup, but that might be the thing.

Overall, I would say that I traded without expectations today. Perhaps the paper aspect of this (i.e., no monetary risk) is finally sinking in.

So that leaves the 'edge' (pfft.... what an edge...)

Here is a revision:

1. 15 trend rules
2. 5 signals the entry 
3. 15 trend rules
4. 5 signals the exit
5. Enter when it looks like the trend is going to continue or reverse
6. Exit when the trend looks as if it is spent

Maybe I can get past this 'metric' mindset and get into the flow. Do the best I can. Trade without fear and expectation. Afterall... it is only paper.

Trade well....

End of Day Journal (9-8-10)

Summary:

Pfft....

If you want to learn about what not to do, see the charts below. If you want to see what to do look here.

Details:

End of Day Journal (8-20-10)

Summary:

I finished the day at -$110 (200 share lots of TNA, paper, no commissions):

I think this is the first day of keeping my stop losses within the trading plan ~$0.20. Emotional wreckage today, if you feel like reading about it, I added a journal section under the details.

Details:

Posting the TNA chart for trading posterity and the market charts so I can showoff my S/R lines (going to refer to these for the weekend's strategy posting).

The best trade of the day - the 10:00 long before walking away from the lunch session. Exit signal on the 11:25 doji?

From now on my goal is to have all my charts be a reflection of my risk tolerance. 

Journal:

I was an emotional wreck today; I found myself looking at the charts with something like disbelief... and anger, frustration, feelings of betrayal, and plenty of swearing.... as setup after setup failed (my arbitrary 'flying by the seat of my pants' setups). I kept repeating the mantra, but it just wasn't clicking. I kept thinking about how whacked out the market is, how nuts all the other traders in the market must be, and how I am doing everything right but no one else is going with the flow.

Pfft.

How can I go from having some semblance of control over the last two days to emotional meltdown today? The only difference that comes to mind is that I was coming off of a 7-day win streak two days ago, and today I am following 2 days of losing; not just any two days of losing, two days of quasi-emotionless losing. Two days of 'ah-hah' moments and setting up personal (and probably public) expectations for today: 'Is today the day all of this comes together? Does this really work?'

Hmmm.

When I woke up this morning, I felt like something was missing. I was doing the mental picture thing but it just wasn't quite doing the trick. I had been meaning to clean up and edit some of my personal specific refutations, and I thought this might be a good time to do it - re-write them, clean them up, and re-establish them in my head. This helped a lot and afterward I felt that I was ready to go. I placed one early trade while I was writing them and felt good about it.

I sat on my hands for quite awhile, and then took a couple of decent stabs at it. I hit the wrong hot key on the 8:40 and by the time I reversed prior to my stop at 8:55, I knew I was in trouble. Things went downhill from there. I tried the usual remedies: reading over my worksheet, chanting 'The market can do anything', and trying to write down specific refutations, but nothing worked and I kept getting pulled further and further into the rut. By the lunch session I was in a foul mood, but things looked good for a long, so I put in a position right before taking off for break and a workout. I tried the mental affirmation game the entire time I was taking a break.

So I came back from the break and - heh - I hadn't been stopped and I had managed to catch an uptrend. This reminded me of what I had posted to Fozz last night and I began to think that I could pull off an emotionless afternoon.

Not to be. By the time the 15 minute doji on the 11:30 and subsequent fail rolled around I was back in the abyss.

Again - I have to ask - why? Why didn't the practical guidelines that I had established over the prior two days work today?

I am not sure that I have an answer.

But something happened at around 12:15 today. I was standing on my head, chanting my mantra and picking my toes, all while trying to laugh at my frustration (which sounded more akin to a nervous death rattle at this point), when I noticed it was time to put on another trade. I decided that I didn't care what happened, this trade could do whatever the hell it wanted, I was done trying to figure things out. So I put the trade on, sat in my chair, and mentally checked out. I watched it. The price went up. The price came back down. After 15 minutes and another doji, I found myself thinking 'Looks like it wants to go back up' so I bought some more. Then I watched again. When it looked like it wanted to come down, I moved the stop above the last buy and waited some more. It was then that I began noticing that I was relatively calm about this whole thing. I started thinking about it, and realized that on that last trade I had made a conscious decision to quit trying - notice the language I had used? =p It was out of frustration: after seeing setup after setup fail, I had thrown my hands up and said 'Who knows what is going to happen?!' But it worked. Thinking about it now, until that point in the day I had not fully acknowledged that I had no clue about the market - I was trading to try to make things happen, and I expected them to happen.
 
I realized today that the belief system generating all of this junk runs incredibly deep. I can see that I have a lot of work to do. But I was probably setting myself up for a day like today. Personally I was expecting a very good day - it was the end of the week and I wanted to go out on a profitable note, I had had two days of losses while trying to get in the habit of the emotionless belief system and  it was getting easier, and I wanted to post a profitable day on the blog. Bingo. I had created my own doom.

It wasn't until I got to the very end of my rope today that I was ready to accept the fact that I could do nothing about the market. I either need to learn to recognize when I am setting up expectations and nip them in the bud, or get a much shorter rope. Probably both.

I am going to post a definitive entry/exit strategy over the weekend and follow Mr. Douglas' prescription (try it for 20 trades) next week. And I am going to try and track down those expectations and run them into the ground.

Another step in the journey.

Have a great weekend.

End of Day Journal (7-7-2010)

Summary:

Suffice to say that today was perfectly awful trading wise. I don't feel like posting details or ruminating. The day pretty much followed the same track I have been taking lately.

What is absolutely crazy is the emotional attachment, even while paper trading. The thought that kept creeping into my head was that the entire market was working against me... AND I WAS PAPER TRADING. I wasn't even a participating. Is that paranoid enough for you? I wonder if I am ruining this entire experience for myself.

So, not a lot of trade talk going on; I need a break. I am not so sure that I need or can work any harder at this... my gut is saying that I shouldn't.

After the session was over I went out and got a massage and did some of the family Costco shopping. Tonight it is grilled salmon and a movie with the kids. Truth be told, I feel better already.

And, I/we get the big break here in a little under two weeks. We are taking the family down to Costa Rica for a couple of weeks. I had hoped to have this trading thing well on the way by then. In fact, that might be what is adding to all the performance pressure. I officially give it up today. Maybe I will sleep better tonight.

Trade well.