End of Day Journal (10-5-10)

Summary:

Paper traded 200 share lots:

Not a complete picture - lost power for the last 30 mins of the day and several positions rode to the EOD. Hard telling what would of happened but anyhoo. I need to make sure that I have this type of problem addressed before starting to trade live again.

The power outage invalidates the largest stop list, but posting it anyways:

XD wins at $0.75/share (power outage), but MCP is valid at $0.57/share (flash momo).

Largest wins:

Whoot! BG at $1.89/share (flash crash). I picked off a $1.50/share on the long side as well. FLR came in at $0.67/share on a slow and steady climb (which happened to be on a reversed failed short).

The last two days have been... different. I have been content to enter a position and let the stock do its thing more as an effort to try and learn something from it rather than consumed with whether or not I get a profitable trade. For example, on NFLX today, I sat thru two +$0.70 waves just paying attention to what was happening and trying to get a feel for what a change in the trend 'feels' like. I know... it sounds crazy. But it has been very, very cool. A guy could do this without a position, but I think that putting a position on is an investment in the outcome for me, so I pay closer attention. I feel like a sponge. Another example is MCP, I completely failed on both entries, but choosing to invest in the outcome had me paying attention, and now I have one more memory of what flash momo looks and feels like.

I like this.

I was chatting with Fozz at EOD today about some of what is going on. I started paper trading mid-June (as best as I can determine): that gives me something like 90 days of paper trading (minus weekends and vacation in C.R.). NT lists about 150 trades a day, meaning something like 100 actual trades. This puts me in the neighborhood of 900 sim trades. Maybe it takes this many trades to come to terms with some of this stuff.

I stumbled across Trading in the Zone on 8-17-2010, which, if I use that as the starting point puts me at about 380 sim trades. If I start counting from the time I decided to get serious about Douglas and the meditation/visualization routine (9-18-2010), I only have about 2 weeks worth of trades. I am sure all the experience counts, but I would put more weight on the last few weeks.

And heh... it might all blow over tomorrow after I get stopped 100 times in a row...

But it feels different, it feels the most like learning yet. I am guessing (believing, desperately hoping...) profitability will come.

Feedback welcome and much appreciated.

Trade well.

Details:

AXP

I am going to call this a so-so entry. Looking at the big picture, long from the 10:35 wick would of been a good call, but this was not a momo setup, I am going to say that there wasn't enough consolidation. I called it right both ways, and actually made money on the long, and the stop would of never been hit. I need to try and avoid these types of setups.

CHRW

15 minute called the top,  I don't recall looking at it at all. The 1:10 marks a double top with a new high being formed on bigger volume. This would of caught me out if I had been watching. I am thinking that the way to play this one was to go with the outbreak, and then reverse on the 15 minute hammer.

GYMB

The lack of volume should of been a clue to get out ASAP. I was in early on the candle.

TNA

 Entered on what looked to be a weak market. When it didn't go as expected I exited for a small profit. I should of continued to watch for the breakout.

BG

I wasn't watching BG at all until it hit the new low, about as good an entry on the initial short as it was possible for me to get. The 11:25 marks the initial short exit, an attempt at a long, stopped, short, stopped, then long just above the $55.00 mark. I held this until the 11:40. After that I just did what I thought was the right thing to do, which didn't turn out that well. Watching this unfold was a great exercise in becoming familiar with how much the candles can move yet still yield to a trend. When the sellers were done, they were done. These types of trades are incredibly fun. 

CMG

Not the best spread on this, but again I was willing to carry the position simply to try and understand the price action. The long entry was based on what I thought was a prior S/R level, but EOD review says it wasn't close enough. $178.00 was the magic number.

HOG

UA

I caught this one early - on the 1:35 candle move, but I decided to watch it. I then tried to time the reverse. As it approached the day's open it looked like it was ready to keep going so I went with trend. Exited on the even dollar.

VECO

I am going to say that there was not enough consolidation for the breakout. It closed right at the prior high - maybe that should of been a clue? Not sure.

BLK

Crazy spread. Crazy moves. So hard to get out on these, best by far to avoid.

EQIX

My Achilles heel - classic example: entering positions at exactly the wrong time in a channel bound sequence, getting stopped at exactly the wrong time and reversing. The last try was something I never do, which was to add on a negative position, at the bottom of the channel. Heh. Still got stopped.

I am not sure how to get out of this type of trade cycle. On one hand, this shows that I am picking reasonable stops - right at S/R.

LPS

Another great exercise. Learning what momo looks like when it starts, when it ends.

NFLX

I have to say the same about this one - a good exercise. Each entry had direction, but I sat on it sometimes just to see what would happen. The 12:00 long was on thru three waves - something like $0.70 for the first two, then lower high followed by the collapse and stop. The objective today was not profit so much as how the price action behaves when the tide is turning.

AGU

Not sure how to call this. Probabilities? Lack of market support?

BUCY

Not a good entry, too far from consolidation and momo is spent. I should of waited for the pull back.

FCX

Entry is ok, just no market to support the breakout. Exit is due to the power outage and missing stop.

MCP

Flash. called it exactly wrong, but another one under my belt.

RGC

ALXN

CCSC

Crazy spread. I moved the stop down at 1:15 with the lack of movement. The long entry was a mistake, it marks where I had set the profit target (due to the crazy spread) and was filled right after the stop. I need to make sure I make those orders OCO. Best not to trade these period (+-$0.30 spreads...).

FLR

The first reverse was perfect.

MTB

Flash - and yes, caught the short before it went all the way down. I had ample time to trade, but I thought it might go further. Another opportunity to become familiar with these types of trades. The exit was due to the power outage.

SIAL

End of Day Journal (9-24-10)

Summary:

Paper traded 200 shares:

EDIT: I had to remove the account performance jpeg. I must not have saved the correct one. The Excel charts are correct. I know I averaged right at 39% profitability today. The profit was over $1k.

Pretty incredible day - note the percent profitable is something like 39% and yet the loss was only $83. This is due to the much tighter stops I set today. There were a couple on DV that were quite large, but the DV trades were more about working on my timing and I let the stops ride to see what would happen.

Largest losses:

Again, DV takes the podium with the largest at $0.47/share.

Largest wins:

DV takes the honors here as well at $0.62/share.

About today: I know this is going to sound crazy, but I feel pretty good about it. Imagine that - another negative day and I feel like it was a day well spent. I learned a lot - the trading was more about learning and not a personal indictment/justification of me...

How can I explain this? Maybe it had something to do with the day's approach, which after yesterday's thoughts and journal became about setting tight stops assuming that if the stock has momo it will move away, if it doesn't then I don't want to be in the trade. The day became more about timing and trying to find key momo setups. DV is probably the best example (though it didn't always work). It was a day well spent and I think I learned a lot about what to do and what not to do. I feel like I am soaking the markets and info up like a dry sponge. Today was as fun as it has ever been.

Give me another year of this and maybe I will be consistently profitable. Heh.

A lot of charts today. Some with only one trade. Again - this exercise is primarily about me and this is my review: burning those patterns into my head. Several charts have no trades, when they came to my attention I either had too much going on or I thought that I was too far from the opportune entry. I listed them and placed green arrows on the current price for EOD review. Interestingly enough, I ended up trading some of them later in the day.

Gotta love the new image upload function. Fozz has been talking about it for awhile, but for some reason it was not showing up in my browser (strangely enough, it did once in Chrome but not FF). Made for much easier uploading today.

Enjoy.

Trade well.

Details:

AEM

Listed and not traded. Short was the call - and this is the approach for nearly all the lines, trading the breakouts/breakdowns:

XEC

Plenty of time on this one after I noticed it:

WLL

Fail - or wait for the double top:

PRGO

Neither of these would of worked out very well. Notice how close the first arrow is to the even dollar:

QCOM

A little room, but close to the top. Managed to profit on all the later trades:

SLB

Couldn't of played this much better:

PII

Right at the top, the 15 would of offered some clues:

SWK

NOV

MHK

Some room:

JOYG

ISLN

Plenty of room on the first arrow, the second marks when I noticed on new highs again - I had forgotten that I had it on the MA:

INFA

Top:

HOT

Some room - up to the even dollar:

GRMN

Somehow I missed the big volume bars:

ETN

Tight stops. I am not sure what happened on the 12:30, but it looks like I got stopped twice on it. The last long may have been on candle change:

EXPE

FLS

Not much happening, but I sure tried:

FSLR

EMR

DVA

More patience would of paid off here, but it sure seemed to like that $68.00 mark:

DV

Trades of the day. An experiment in momo.

I covered the long early - on the $48.00 mark.

In hindsight - I should of place the short on the $49.00 mark (1:05 candle). I thought about it, but I thought it was too far away and entered twice as it went up (limit orders). It then popped thru them both.

The 1:10 candle I tried the long with a tight stop. I would of come in short if it would of come back up.

The 1:15 candle was a long after the bottomside wick was made and I placed a limit cover above the prior open. Cha-ching.

The 1:20 saw me try long again, but I couldn't bring the stop up fast enough, so it was a wider than it should of been. After that trade I changed up the ATM for a $0.06 stop rather than the usual $0.50 stop that I have to manually move.

The 1:25 was long on the $68.00 mark. Tight stop.

The 1:30 was a technical glitch. The ATM strategy mucked up and I added twice at with bad stops and then was sitting uneven on the order. The remainder of the order got stopped on the 1:40. I left the stop wide on the remainder as an experiment.

After I was stopped on the 1:40 I went long with another wide stop (blame it on poor timing). The stop happened on the 2:15.

After the stop on the 2:15 I tried to go long again with a tight stop, and it triggered on the same candle.

Overall I lost on this but it was a good exercise:

CRM

BRK.B

BX

CE

Double top. Not a big mover, but the afternoon was full of these:

CECO

BJ

BIDU

BID

BHI

The green arrow was on the largest candle until my exit:

ATI

I closed several positions over this time. No clear signal on this one and I should of stayed in:

BAX

Here was one attempt at timing on fast momo. For some reason I picked long on the candle change, the stop was small enough to reverse, but against the rules, so I waited. Heh:

BEXP

Another missed entry - largest candle of the day, and then I get out right before the momo:

BG

APA

AMZN

I have been getting burned on this stock. Too busy to grab the last outbreak:

ALTR

Not a lot of movement, but things just clicked:

AIR

Not a big mover (about $0.20 from the arrow), but the signal to get out is there:

AFL

Flat:

AGU

The red diamond marks the largest candle of the day - I didn't notice it until I actually exited:

TNA

I had the right idea for the afternoon, but was reading the Q's for the exit. Strangely enough there was some divergence - I missed out:

TZA