End of Day Journal (5-28-2010)

Summary:

Per the trading plan (posted today) : I decided that $200 was the most I wanted lose on 20 consecutive stops. Assuming an average stop loss of $0.10 that came to 100 share lots.

I was doing pretty well until the end of the day and I went in on TNA for some crazy action with 500 share orders. The profit potential was beckoning to me with long red candles and rather than ramping up from 100 shares and setting proper stops, I got greedy - and got burned for it. Heh.

So for the record - I didn't adhere to the plan for the last 15 minutes of the day, and on two SNDK trades (the bounce off the 9:40 dump).

Score: 0. That is the tally (in terms of consecutive days adhering to the plan). If you want to see how much I lost you can scroll down thru the details and add it up. TNA pretty much says it all.

I like the plan. I like the change in focus and I like how it concentrates my trading - when I adhere to it.

I have mixed feelings about what should happen from here on out. I think I had one positive day this week? For the month I am negative - after seeing some healthy profits.

This has happened before...

Einstein and something he said about insanity comes to mind.

It is pretty obvious that I still have a ways to go. The market seemingly seduces the inexperienced trader with simple - easy - money, gets them hooked and reels it all back in and then some with a vengeance. I simply do not have the experience/skill-set to recognize and cope with a variety of market conditions. I am just not sure I could of recognized or believed this without actually experiencing it. Easy lessons, pfft... who needs 'em?

I don't think the goal here is to have the skills to trade in every type of market prior to trading, market dynamics make that impossible. Rather - I think it is to develop and adhere to a plan that allows me to safely adapt to the market dynamic du jour. Adhere to a plan that offers, provides, and protects the freedom to trade this game well. Protects me from myself.  

I still have some money left. And I think I finally have something like a real plan - a plan that I have paid for and call my own. I didn't intentionally leave out technical indicators, but it was kind of cool when I realized the plan didn't have any. Heh.

Now I need to be able to stick to the plan. Not that I have an abundance of wisdom at my disposal, but I think it would unwise to move forward without a track record of adhering to the plan. 

So here is what I am thinking: paper trading until I have a 5 consecutive-days-sticking-to-the-plan tally. After 5 consecutive days I will switch to live trading. If I deviate from the plan while trading live, I go back to the consecutive day paper trading tally.

Pfft. I have no idea what I am doing here. Who am I kidding?

On another note, I had some great entries today (while I was sticking to the plan). Some great reads. Always room for improvement, but it was fun. If I would of been scalping a 15 to 20 tick profit I think I would have been upwards of 80% on profitable trades. I am sure scalping is all there is to get sometimes, but I want to try and avoid the habit.

A couple of entries saw stops less than a dime and I got hit by a couple of ticks away from momo support, only to see it go the right direction. I am considering a minimum stop loss limit.

Overall, more attention to the market price action and market volume is in order. The 9:10 climb to the 9:35 doji on the Q should have been a dead give away. I missed it, but happened to be short on two positions based on the stock pattern. The 11:15 uptick on big green volume coming off of the 11:10 low should of been another signal - I came in wrong on a number of positions right around then and I think a good market read would of avoided these. I was still thinking the momo was with the shorts. I am not sure how to read the 11:55 spike - I want to say exhaustion, but it is probably better to say more momo:

Have a great weekend - I think I will try to avoid thinking about trading, but hard telling how successful I will be at it.

Details:

Instead of narrating every transaction, I am going to let the charts speak for themselves and add a few comments of interest. Pink triangle is a sell, blue triangle is a buy. Left side of the candle is an entry, right side is an exit.


APA - well executed. If I would of traded one last time, I am almost sure I would have been long on the bottom side of the 9:35 (which would have been a fail), but I was holding other positions (-$26.64):

APC (-$11.83):

Expecting a continuation on the trend on DE and entered on what I thought was support. I missed the accompanying volume spike and uptick on the Q's (-$6.82):

Looks like the stop was a little lower than it should of been on DO's short - two pennies under the support, but I probably still would have been stopped with the long stopping wick 3 pennies above. Lesson? I probably should adopt some minimum stop loss (-$6.53):

Bought on FCN's support side and tried to reverse and then hopped back on (+45.69):

FFIV: A better price point or a minimum stop loss may have kept me out of this stop (-$9.52):

Several attempts at the short on FTI all with great market support (-$30.70):

GR: This entry was coming off of a red candle on the market and it looked good - but I neglected the Q volume spike  @11:15. However, it is likely that I would call it the same way next time given the volume on GR's immediate reds and the doji (-$4.60):

JCG (-$10.39):

MTB didn't have a lot of support for the stop, but the increased volume on the doji begged me to try.  How to explain the exit? Lack of support for the stop. I can't blame the uptick in red volume because I was out on the candle change. Again - a better gage on the market would of lent support for a better decision (+$19.25):

OII was trending. I got stopped out a couple of times before I got it right - and it was on the slow EMA and earlier support - which I noticed on the last entry and took the chance. 70 ticks at best, and I doubled down as it seemed to bump against the ceiling. The next few candles were extremely tough to read, but looking at it now, increasing green volume should have been the signal to think about getting out. If anyone has anything to add, feel free (-$61.32):

The short entry on PNC looks late, but after checking the distance to the ceiling I was ok with entering. I tried again after the stop and closed as the market kept creeping up (-$17.03):

RIG: I am not sure what happened to the stop here - there was no slip, very poor placement (-$17.54):

The close on the slow EMA prompted the short which came late on the candle change (0:51). This entry leaves me scratching my head - was not supported at all. The market was showing some weakness on the second entry (-$18.80):

SNDK - the big down move caught me in some technical glitches - NT was coming up with some order errors - so I was unable to scale up. I went out of plan mode and worked some 500 share orders on the bounce, but I was not reading things very well and ended up breaking even. Again - Q's  - and SNDK - left a great signal on the 11:15 (+$21.07):

SPN looked to be trending and I bought close to 'return to trend' support. Seems like I was reading the market wrong - or not paying attention at all on the 11:25 mark (+$43.35):

I feel like I should apologize for TNA, and unfortunately, I blew the plan and tried to trade 500 shares on the last candles. Long wicks - freakin evil. I was actually short on the 12:40 with a good price point, but that long wick(ed) action shook me out. Prior to that it was a mixed bag - I had 4 positive trades out of 14, with 7 more of those showing some positive action before stopping. I am not sure what to say about TNA - when it moves it moves nicely - away from price point. That might be key. Blew the budget.  (-$520.83):

XEC basically ignored the rest of the market on this entry. I got an excellent price point. Can't tell what happened with the stop here, but it may have been spread (-$19.44):

My trading plan

Yes – I have written trading plans before, that is, I have tried to write trading plans.
I think yesterday’s post was actually the first time that I have come up with something that address’s the real challenge: silly me – my lack of real time experience and the emotional response to market conditions outside of my experience.

So I decided to take some time this morning before trading to make it formal. Learning progress will be measured to the degree of adherence to the plan.

1. I need to be mentally and emotionally prepared to lose my stop loss 20 times in a row today. How much will I lose on 20 consecutive losses and am I prepared to lose this much? This will govern the day’s trade size.
2. Each candle of the day presents a potential new opportunity. This gives me 78 potential opportunities for every stock for every trading day. My job is to pick the most probable direction. Expect to get it right and to get it wrong.
3. The decision to enter a position needs to include full thought to the risk involved. Am I emotionally and mentally prepared to lose my stop loss amount? What kind of behavior can I expect from this stock? Am I prepared to see the stock move in my direction and then retrace and get stopped? 
4. Exit when the stock has changed directions or if it would crazy not to. This means a stop loss, a stall, a big candle, or a reverse signal .

Not that complicated, but all I can think of for now. Today I trade and measure performance on how well I adhere to the plan.

Oh yeah - and feel free to add/critique however.

End of Day Journal (5-27-2010)

Summary:

Another down day, to the tune of -$488.78. I traded 300 share lots today. Here is the summary:

After the review it is evident what did me in today: entries, stops, and exits.

Heh.

No - seriously, I think this is pointing to an underlying problem. The problem is fear and a lack of confidence.

I had some mind boggling good entries today. Perfect setups and great price points. And I had a few hesitant candle change entries which would have been awesome entries if timed correctly. I hesitated because I had gotten stopped the last time and missed the opportunities.

I need to approach entries differently. I need to be prepared mentally to take the risk every time. Every time. I know this - but I think I need to define the risk differently. The definition needs to include letting a profit retrace and come back for a stop. If this keeps happening then it is not the market to be trading in or I am picking the wrong stocks. The risk is the amount of money I am willing to spend to test my gut reaction to what the stock is doing: is it going to move the other direction? Is it going to move my direction and come back with a vengeance? Is it going to move the expected direction?

The retrace is incredibly difficult to handle psychologically. I am betting that a big part of dealing with this is simply recognizing it and declaring it. This might be a beginning of the day frame of reference - and something to re-iterate before every entry.

Entry - all about price point. With good price point comes the tight stop and minimal risk.

So - stop loss placement. I did pretty well today, but a few got away from me - primarily because I didn't consider the placement prior to entry. They need short term momo support. Psychologically - they need to be the point where I acknowledge that I made the wrong decision about direction and prepare to move onto the next opportunity. If I can't get the price point on entry for a tight stop - I missed the opportunity and need to move onto or wait for the next one. Plenty of them every day (I need to remind myself of this constantly).

And exits. I need to acknowledge potential entry signals as exit signals: immediate patterns, previous performance and market sentiment.

The exit is a tough bit, but I think adopting and accepting the risk model on the entry - visualizing and being prepared for a profit and retrace - will help.

Today was a perfect day for trading: letting the winners run would of far outweighed the losses. Yeah - I had a couple of goofy entries, but controlled stops would have kept everything in control. I am going to keep making goofy entries. Key I think is defining and being completely prepared for the risk. The market conditions for the last couple of weeks have been rough and I haven't been finding the best stocks - and the results showed up in today's trading. I simply don't have the experience yet to keep me in an optimal mental trading mode.

I read back over what I have written and for the most part it sounds like it came right off of Scott's blog. I am not simply re-iterating what he says though, I am looking at what has been going on inside of me over the last few days and trying to identify what has been happening. Today's trades reveal mostly bravado on the entries and scared silly exits. Emotions and attitude rather than reading or failing to read some technical signals.

Heh - I think that is new for me. I am not sure when it happened, but right now I see the problem and the solution as me. I have read it many times on Scott's blog, but today I own it. Go figure. Breakthru?

Crazy how much a guy gets involved in this game. I just spent two freakin' hours on this blog and psychoanalysis session.

Ahh well - in some ways it is fun.

With all of that, the details are below. I decided to stop grading the entries - they are what they are. Key is price point - within acceptable stop loss support. I am debating about whether to go back to the 12 tick default stop loss which would force me to time entries a little better, but I am not sure yet.

And on another note - I tried to more closely monitor the Q's and SPY for entry and I think I did ok with it - it was hard to discern the sentiment on the Q's this morning after the initial break thru.

Details:

Short on BIDU, didn't let the two longs go (50 ticks and 70 ticks) (-$0.26):

Long on CNQ and stopped. Long again as it turned green and stopped again. Short after the doji and stopped (-$78.84):

Long on CVE then later short (-$37.51):

Long on DE (-$31.78):

I noticed DV trending and waited for the bounce. The first three entires are actually a mistake - I was at my symbol ticker limit for IB and TDA and not getting smooth data and trying to figure out what the problem was. I finally closed everything. The first 'real' trade was on the 7:45 with a short entry at the candle change. I closed on the green. Later - the entry of the day, and I closed like a noobie - 11 ticks out of 170. I tried to short again later and got stopped both times. About 10 seconds before I was stopped on the last my gut was saying reverse. But I didn't and got stopped. It would have been good for another 70 ticks or so (-$113.50):

Shorted PNC (-14.74):

Late with the short on QLD, discretionary exit (-$12.43):

Long on SI with an exit on the candle change (+$84.58):

I noticed SLB rather late. I tried to get in with a long on the candle change which didn't work. I tried long a little bit later with another stop. I then went long on the next candle change and exited on the next candle change. I entered short 30 seconds later (too late) and tagged a little bit of profit. I came in late with another long at the 11:10 and got stopped before it went back positive. Shorted on the next change and rode it down and back up.

I want to say a few things on these trades. A lack of confidence killed me with late entries. Signs that I would normally use for entry signals I ignored for my exits. Part of the problem was that I got burned on that first long. It was the right thing to do coming off of that long wick. I should of either waited for the next candle change or reversed. Instead I had in my mind that it was going to rebound on this candle, so I went long again resulting in another bruise to the ego. This showed all showed up in subsequent delayed entries (+$59.59):

Adventures in TNA. Biggest loser of the day. Let's see if I can make sense of things.

Short on the first entry and stopped. Then long and stopped - with the stop way out of line at 20 ticks. Bad mistake on that one.

Then long at 8:45 with a candle change exit - I was content to rest with 28 ticks and left another 90 ticks on the table. Fear. Lack of confidence. Get out of my head already.

Short on the 10:10. Late but the market was driving it down. Scalped as it bounced.

Long on the 10:55 change with a stop. For some reason I went long right away again, I think it was because of the way the candle was looking. Turned out I was right for one candle - but I moved my stop and got hit for 18 ticks. This was a bad candle trading session.

Short on the 11:15 and stopped a couple of ticks over the previous high (15 ticks).

I went short on the 11:20 change and stopped on the prior high - with a reverse. I get the direction right and I scalp. and try to short the next candle. Stopped....

Shorted the doji and rode it down and back up for a measly 2 ticks out of 30 possible.

Long on the 12:55 because everything was going up. Stopped. Went short. Stopped. Went long and came away with a tick (-$218.54):

I caught V on the new low. Given the 12:20 market downdraft I shorted. I doubled down as it broke the low. Then tripled as it broke another low. Then I held it thru all the long wicks - until it came back up on that crazy green and hit the adjusted stop. Rawr. 7 ticks loss over a 49 tick potential profit.

I waited and went long on the next candle change and got stopped.

Long on the 12:55 candle change and exited on the next candle change - leaving another 34 ticks on the table. (-$10.75):

Long on VXX with the Q's coming off a doji. Then short as the market was heading higher (poorly placed stop).  Short on the 11:40 as it looked like things were turning around (-$114.59):

End of Day Journal (5-26-2010)

Summary:

Another losing day. The account is down -$238.92. For the sake of posterity: the account was down a maximum of $866.41 (at 12:21 p.m. my time) and reached a max profit of $68.59 (12:50 p.m. my time). Two stopped out trades on TNA (with loose stops) brought it down to the final number.

That is crazy. Over $900 profit in 29 minutes. And to tell you the truth, the trading over the 29 minutes was not perfect, I left quite a bit of money on the table - probably because I was gun shy given the cumulative losses up to that point in the day.

Here is the summary:

The entries and stopped scored a 75% and 85% respectively, much better.

But I am still doing something wrong. The entries don't really matter if the momo isn't there. And it isn't there, at least not on the morning's entries. Well - I take that back, I had JOYG in my sites and I entered on the wrong side and wasn't watching until it started hitting new highs. The candle change reverse was not clean and I got stopped out on loose stops as I tried to find the rhythm twice. That was luck of the draw and the day's second and third biggest single losses at $126.46 and $102.12.

I then proceeded to try to find some mojo on JOYG for the rest of the day and was nibbled to death. the decent moves did not come until the market was moving: i.e., big candles. I knew today was an inside day, without a doubt. But I tried to trade it well, and I think I did a decent job at it -  I think I am seeing probability/potential often where there is none.

I have been internally debating about what I should do from this point forward (since mid-morning today, after reading FNG insightful comment on yesterday's post). At this point I am just not sure.

Paper trading is just not the same as real trading. I think it is good for working out the trading mechanics, but it does nothing for coaching thru the emotional connection money brings to the game.

Emotionally and psychologically I feel fine today. I am sure the strong ending on the day helped - I know I can trade it if I can spot the momo. I still have a lot to learn, but when things are rolling it is pretty easy - when the real money comes it is just a matter of latching on.

As tough as I think I am though, I am certain that another 1k loss today would have put a damper on tomorrow morning. So - for the sake of avoiding unwanted emotional baggage, I am going to follow up on Scott's advice by cutting trade size down to 300 shares and seriously reducing the number of trades in the day.

I am not quite sure how to reduce the number of trades. Implementing a daily loss limit doesn't work for me - the day is not over until the bell rings - and there is always money to be made, e.g., the last 30 minutes of today. Another option is to set some very selective trading criteria, but I am hesitant to set up some quantification scheme - because this method of trading (and I believe it is still the best) pretty much defies quantitative analysis. So I need to do this with some qualitative guidelines.

Yikes - trading guidlines! Rules! pfft...

FNG had an excellent post today re. probability. He compared TNA's action to the Q's. I am thinking potential  guideline.

I put together a JOYG and Q chart to see how they compare - and how I would of traded this differently if I would have been using this as a guideline. So - the faded bar is the Q's, and I drew a red line over potential signal doji's. I highlighted the flat (relatively) highs and lows, and then I drew blue lines over the hypothetical entries on JOYG - looking for momo on the Q's (big bars) and assuming the doji signaled a return to the momo:

I came up with 5 potential entries, with 4 of them working out, assuming they were traded perfectly. This is versus 11 (12 if I count both attempts at the 7:45 short) that I traded today. More than a 50% savings.

Can I do it? Tomorrow will tell, but I have every intention of carrying it out.

I am not so sure that this (deferring to the Q's and SPY) is about me trading less as much as it is something that I should have been doing all along.

Or - I could just wait until there is market action like this afternoon's and yesterdays before trading. Maybe.

Just because these charts look so cool - here is one comparing the TNA and Q's:

And for the sake of posterity - one of JOYG versus SPY:

Sleep well! trade well!

Heh - me and my long posts...

Details:

AEO looked to be trending so I shorted on some flat highs (0:20) (1/1). The stop was placed a tick or two away from the green candle high (1/1). The exit was late. Looking at it, I should have bailed after the second test of the new low. I highlighted additional momo s/r; not a lot of great price action, but it is interesting to see that yesterday's assumption still applies (+$21.23):

Short on BIDU as it re-tested the low (2:12) (2/2) with no support for the stop (12 ticks from entry) (1/2). This is a hard call - the entry had plenty of market support, but the stop lacked some testing. In retrospect, I think the stop should have been placed  just above the prior low. I still would have been stopped out, but the two tests prior lent some support . I shorted on the next candle change as the candle prior showed some indecision and the market was determined to head down (0:04) (3/3). Stop was set on the prior high (2/3). Exited for a scalp (-$11.93):

DV was headed down this afternoon. I watched it stall and tried to buy further up the wick, but I ended up chasing it down (3/4 - entries). The stop was placed at the top of the long red two candles prior which ended up being 12 ticks and acceptable under the trend (3/4 - stops). I should of exited as the lows flattened. In retrospect, the entry should have been on the long green candle that I exited on: another test on the immediate high - perfect (-$73.01):

I shorted JOYG as the highs flattened and it dropped below the near term low (0:21) (4/5). The stop was placed on the low (4/5) This was a great trade - but something I noticed today - I should have been playing the other side: I should of shorted as it tested the near term high (the support side). As this failed - I would the long green could have been a signal to reverse on the next change. The long green did violate the momo support by a tick.

As I watched it go up, I decided to short the candle change (0:01) (5/6). I got stopped out in a bad way - over 20 ticks with slip. The stop was on the prior high, I just didn't get the best price on entry (5/6). As it faltered around, I shorted again as it fell pas the prior high (0:52) (6/7). Stopped out again as it tore thru the latest high and my stop (6/7).

The 9:10 long was based on the doji, some green candle in play and the market coming off of the new low (7/8 - entries). The stop was placed on the green reverse hammer open (7/8).

The 9:30 long shows a change in tactic - I started trying to buy the support side, using the very near term lows (3:48) (8/9). The stop was very poorly placed - it should have been much tighter (7/9). Anyhoo - the new tactic didn't work and I got stopped. I tried the same thing again on the next candle - basing the support on the some of the longer term support which is somewhat dubious IMO(0:11) (8/10). The stop was placed on the prior candle low (8/10). Despite the questionable entry, I got some price action and I exited shortly after the new candle. I tried again on the next candle - which had more near term support (2:51) (9/11). The stop got hammered as I lowered it and with slip got pretty much the low (8/11). I shorted a few seconds later as it appeared to have some momo (10/12) with the stop on the prior low (9/12).

The 11:25 was an early short on the flat highs, the high had already been tested and the market was headed down (4:05) (11/13). The stop was placed on the candle's high (10/13). I doubled up as it shot down (0:56) (11/14 - should have waited for a supported pull back). The exit was discretionary and nervous, especially with the market's action, and I came out negative on the trade. I went long on the 12:00 (0:56) (12/15 - entries) with the market rebounding and the stop on the prior low (11/14). I exited on a fading candle change and shorted towards the back half of the candle with the market dropping (3:56) (13/16). The stop was on the candle's high and I got busted (12/15). Shorting on the momo support on the next candle (12:20) would have been the way to go (-$618.33):

Early on a short for RIMM, the candle was close to done and I was thinking stall (4:44) (14/17 - entries). I fudged on the stop - had it 10 ticks, then brought it down to 2 ticks above the stalled highs as the pattern progressed (13/16 - stops). The exit should have been after it passed the previous candle high, but I used a discretionary as it went on to look inevitable (-$26.46):

No idea here on the long, very poor entry - I think I just wanted some of the action (14/18). The stop was placed on the prior close (14/17) (-$59.41):

I shorted TNA as the market was dropping and it hadn't reacted yet (0:10) (15/19). I can't recall why I exited, but it was a dumb move - the stop was never violated (15/18). I went long on the next candle change (0:04) (16/20) and was stopped out some 40 seconds later (16/19). I shorted 7 seconds later (17/21) and was stopped out some 30 seconds later (17/20). I went long 16 seconds later (1:36) (18/22 - entries) as it looked to be giving it up and was stopped out again (2:26) (18/21 - stops). Shorted at 2:48 and held on until the candle change where I reversed (19/23). This was stopped (19/22) and I shorted 4 seconds later for most of the ride down. I went long after the 12:35 candle change (0:09), but exited for a 24 tick scalp as it bounced around. I then shorted (4:00) (19/24 - entries) as the rest of the market kept going down with the stop on the prior close for some 20 ticks (20/23). I took a chance on a long (20/25) (still the 12:35 candle at 4:40) and exited for an 18 tick profit (21/24).

The 12:40 candle started with a short at 2:10 as it passed the prior open (21/26 - entries). This was stopped on the prior open (22/25 - stops). The stop turned into a reverse (22/27) (stop on the prior close again - 23/26) for the ride to the top of the 12:45 with an exit on market bounce.

Late on the short entry (0:13) (22/28 - entries) for the 12:50 candle (stop on candle open 24/27). It went down and retraced and I spooked for the exit. The next 3 entries were all stopped with only one on the candle change (23/31 - entries) (25/30 - stops). The last entry was a short on the candle change (24/32) (26/31) and an exit 20 seconds prior to close for an 18 tick scalp.

I left a lot of money on the table here - and traded a little too often. The first few switches were ok with tight supported stops (nothing over 12 ticks). 2 stops (12:35 and 12:40) suffered from poor entries and got hit at 20 ticks. Likewise with the 2 on the 12:55.

Somewhere during the action I started paying attention to the VXX numbers - which seemed to be leading the market and TNA action. This kept me hanging on for the 12:40 to 12:45 capture. This could have been played much better. I am afraid the early first exit was due to the day's losses at this point (+$586.10):

 Long on VXX as the prior candle broke resistance with market support (25/33). The stop had support on the resistance, but I let it slip to 10 ticks (27/32). The best move here would have been to play the support - on the next candle, but there were some long wicks ahead (-$50.85):

End of Day Journal (5-25-2010)

Summary:

Choppy messy day today. And I traded it very poorly. The account is down $1308.66 for the day. Here is the summary:

The biggest losers were LEA and TNA. LEA was a gross error. TNA was the usual.

I went thru the day realizing it was a chop fest, I suppose I am gaining some perspective. But I still traded it: my thinking was that if I traded it well things would work out. And I went thru the day thinking that I had traded it well.

I broke the grading up into entry and stop placement today, and a brief word on the grading scale: I judge the entry as either good or bad dependent upon the behavior of the stock prior to entry (probable direction) and price point. The stops were judged either good or bad dependent upon good support and good placement. The 'goodness' of the stop is of course subject to entry, but it was possible to have a poor entry and a good stop despite the poor entry.

But, much to my chagrin, after a review of the trades I realized that I did not trade well at all. I came away with 16/33 on the entries and 17/33 on the stops. This number needs to be upwards of 90% or I shouldn't be trading.

The day was choppy, no doubt about it. But despite the chop, there were some excellent trades to be had - so easy to say end of day. Nearly all of the stocks traded today followed the EOD market buy frenzy. How to recognize the potential here? I need to be able to identify these during trading hours. Towards this end I tried to come up with a common theme as I was doing the review. I started noticing that prior to most of the big moves/trends there seemed to be some support area. 3 candles seemed to be a theme, so I started highlighting all of the 3 or more consecutive candles with fairly tight highs/lows (within 5 ticks). This is a hit and miss - some don't pan out at all, but these are usually associated with lots of variance.

Per FNG's post today it looks like he hits these on the way out: e.g., a candle closes on or near the momo support. The next candle opens flush, reverses and breaks thru. He trades on the break with the stop on the support. That of course is probably the ideal trade - after reviewing I couldn't find one stock that I traded do this today. However, if looked at in terms of resistance, I found quite a few. ANR is a decent example:

Ideally the buy would be close to the s/r. After looking at the lines I drew, this could probably be interpreted a little differently, maybe better to bump the resistance up a few ticks. Crossing the fast EMA seems to be significant as well - check out CVC:

Regardless - it is hard to quantify this approach, but something to think about.

I am surprised at how poorly I traded today - I thought I was beyond this. I didn't feel stressed as far as trading was concerned, but I was not well rested and exercised, maybe this all came into play without me realizing it.

So I spent a lot of time on this post - for my own benefit. The day was expensive and I don't want it to be in vain. If you can benefit thru my mistakes - and perhaps touch on something that I am missing - feel free to share. It is imperative that I start trading well.

Tomorrow is a new day - trade well!

Details:

Short on ANR on the 9:20 candle change (0:01) (1/1). The stop was violated by 3 ticks (1/1), but I was slow in bringing it down and it worked out. The exit was for an 9 tick scalp given the day's market. This was following the immediate market move, and I should of stayed in. Short on the 11:40 price point (0:58) (2/2) after it failed to break thru the high. The stop was placed at the previous high (6 ticks) (2/2). (-$4.81):

Long on APC at the 9:25 candle change (0:03) (3/3) with the stop placed below the previous candle low (6 ticks) (3/3). Did not capitalize on the 20 tick potential and went short after it stopped. With the lack of market support I should have exited on the candle change.  I reversed after the stop, (3/4) with no support for the new stop (3/4).I exited for a small loss after it was evident the trade was a poor choice (-$39.50):

Short on BIDU on the 7:50 price point (0:09) (4/5). The stop was poorly placed and broke thru regardless (3/5) (-$59.82):

CVC was one of the few trending stocks today. I noticed it on the 10:00 o'clock high and rationalized that the  failed high and longish red was a good entry point as it stalled (0:21) (5/6). The stop had some support on the previous low and it got hit with slip (4/6) (10 ticks). I tried this a total of 6 times and got stopped every time. The 7th time would of nailed it, but I may have been stopped out again. The 11:00 15 minute candle would have been green - and offered a stronger signal for the turn around, but stocks don't always wait for this. All of the losses were under $50, and 4 of them were under $30. I read this completely wrong and not sure what to do about it. The fast EMA may have lent some additional insight. This stock was just in trend mode and I was looking for a quick reverse per the rest of the market. All of this work for what would have amounted to as 40 to 50 ticks at best. I am going to call the rest of the entries and stops good as well (10/11 - entries) (9/11 - stops) (-$206.96):

Short on DNDN for the 8:15 price point (11/12) for 8 ticks max unrealized. The market support was fine for the wait and with the doji I decided to. The stop lacked clear support and I used the high on the green candle prior to the first doji as it didn't seem too bad at 10 ticks (9/12) (-$47.55):

Short on FTI on the 11:20 price point (12/13 - entries), and I was lax in bringing the stop down. It shot up on the last 5 seconds of the candle and as I was bringing the stop down - not a good combination (10/13 - stops). I then shorted on the 11:25 price point (0:18) (13/14) with a well placed stop that got tagged (4 ticks above prior high for a 8 tick stop) (11/14). I came in with a late and somewhat desperate short on the 11:55 candle (0:20) (13/15). The stop was on the previous high and was never touched (12/15) but I exited on the retrace. Shorted again on the next candle (0:20) (12/16) with no clear support for the stop (12/16) and exited as it fizzled (-$63.52):

Long on JOYG on the 10:55 price point (13/17 - entries) with good support on the stop - but I used a couple of ticks below the last red close rather than the wick, and I was pushing it at 10 ticks (12/17). This was probably the one really good entry today,  a limit with a better price point probably would have been the way to go. I circled a stretch of price action that may have been tempting to play as it unfolded, but the variance is pretty wide. The tail end of it is marked by a failed breakout to the upside and a brief down trend that fizzled into the great swing up (-$47.85):

A short on LEA turned into a major burn. I came in late as it dropped and ended up chasing for the entry - I bought the low (0:46) (13/18). The volume spike should have been the flag to reverse - how did I miss it? Regardless, the spread was something like between 4 and 20 ticks and it shot way out of control before I could get the stop in (12/18). Finally just closed (-$397.78):

Chased the new low on POT (3:51) (13/19) with mediocre support on the stop which was breached (12/19).  Short on the 11:30 candle change (0:06) (14/20) and closed on 31 ticks with the stop placed on the prior high (13/19). Later shorted the 11:40 candle change with a loose stop on the prior high (13/20 - entries) (13/20 - stop). Then shorted the 11:50 candle change  - and chased it down (13/21). Stopped with no support for the stop (13/21). I went long on the same candle (13/22 - entries) (13/22 - stops) and scalped something like 2 ticks. Sold on the 12:55 candle change (0:00) (14/23) with stop on prior high (14/23) and came away with 10 ticks. Quite a bit of variance on some of the supported entries, and for the most part probably not very good calls (-$7.88):

Long on SLB as it broke the new high (2:40) (14/24) , with the stop place on the new high (15/24). This stock is sketchy on supported reversals, but I thought I would highlight what I saw (-$33.10):

Long on TNA as I chased the new high (2:41) (14/25 - entries) (15/25 - stop). This would have been a good trade if the entry had been timed for price point. Later long on the market's ramp up and TNA's seeming lag (1:23) (14/26) with a poor stop placement (15/26). I reversed after the stop and was stopped again (14/27 - entries) (15/27 - stop). TNA has several supported stop opportunities, most with quite a bit of variance - none of them look like very good candidates, pretty representative of the day (-$203.30):

Short on UNP on the 9:10 candle change (0:00) (15/28) with good support for the stop (16/28). Later shorted for something like 5 ticks (15/29) (16/29). Lots of stop support - but again, wide variance and overall a very choppy stock. I had no business trading it. Not sure why I did (-$14.45):

Short on VXX on the 12:20 candle change (0:04) (16/30) with mediocre stop support (17/30). Spooked exit. Later an attempt at a long (16/31) and stopped (17/31). Another horrible entry going long and stopped (16/32) (17/32). A direct line to my bank account would probably be less stressful (-$99.14):

Short on XEC (0:17) (16/33) with no stop support (17/33). Mixed bag on the stop supports (-$83.26):