End of Day Journal (10-5-10)

Summary:

Paper traded 200 share lots:

Not a complete picture - lost power for the last 30 mins of the day and several positions rode to the EOD. Hard telling what would of happened but anyhoo. I need to make sure that I have this type of problem addressed before starting to trade live again.

The power outage invalidates the largest stop list, but posting it anyways:

XD wins at $0.75/share (power outage), but MCP is valid at $0.57/share (flash momo).

Largest wins:

Whoot! BG at $1.89/share (flash crash). I picked off a $1.50/share on the long side as well. FLR came in at $0.67/share on a slow and steady climb (which happened to be on a reversed failed short).

The last two days have been... different. I have been content to enter a position and let the stock do its thing more as an effort to try and learn something from it rather than consumed with whether or not I get a profitable trade. For example, on NFLX today, I sat thru two +$0.70 waves just paying attention to what was happening and trying to get a feel for what a change in the trend 'feels' like. I know... it sounds crazy. But it has been very, very cool. A guy could do this without a position, but I think that putting a position on is an investment in the outcome for me, so I pay closer attention. I feel like a sponge. Another example is MCP, I completely failed on both entries, but choosing to invest in the outcome had me paying attention, and now I have one more memory of what flash momo looks and feels like.

I like this.

I was chatting with Fozz at EOD today about some of what is going on. I started paper trading mid-June (as best as I can determine): that gives me something like 90 days of paper trading (minus weekends and vacation in C.R.). NT lists about 150 trades a day, meaning something like 100 actual trades. This puts me in the neighborhood of 900 sim trades. Maybe it takes this many trades to come to terms with some of this stuff.

I stumbled across Trading in the Zone on 8-17-2010, which, if I use that as the starting point puts me at about 380 sim trades. If I start counting from the time I decided to get serious about Douglas and the meditation/visualization routine (9-18-2010), I only have about 2 weeks worth of trades. I am sure all the experience counts, but I would put more weight on the last few weeks.

And heh... it might all blow over tomorrow after I get stopped 100 times in a row...

But it feels different, it feels the most like learning yet. I am guessing (believing, desperately hoping...) profitability will come.

Feedback welcome and much appreciated.

Trade well.

Details:

AXP

I am going to call this a so-so entry. Looking at the big picture, long from the 10:35 wick would of been a good call, but this was not a momo setup, I am going to say that there wasn't enough consolidation. I called it right both ways, and actually made money on the long, and the stop would of never been hit. I need to try and avoid these types of setups.

CHRW

15 minute called the top,  I don't recall looking at it at all. The 1:10 marks a double top with a new high being formed on bigger volume. This would of caught me out if I had been watching. I am thinking that the way to play this one was to go with the outbreak, and then reverse on the 15 minute hammer.

GYMB

The lack of volume should of been a clue to get out ASAP. I was in early on the candle.

TNA

 Entered on what looked to be a weak market. When it didn't go as expected I exited for a small profit. I should of continued to watch for the breakout.

BG

I wasn't watching BG at all until it hit the new low, about as good an entry on the initial short as it was possible for me to get. The 11:25 marks the initial short exit, an attempt at a long, stopped, short, stopped, then long just above the $55.00 mark. I held this until the 11:40. After that I just did what I thought was the right thing to do, which didn't turn out that well. Watching this unfold was a great exercise in becoming familiar with how much the candles can move yet still yield to a trend. When the sellers were done, they were done. These types of trades are incredibly fun. 

CMG

Not the best spread on this, but again I was willing to carry the position simply to try and understand the price action. The long entry was based on what I thought was a prior S/R level, but EOD review says it wasn't close enough. $178.00 was the magic number.

HOG

UA

I caught this one early - on the 1:35 candle move, but I decided to watch it. I then tried to time the reverse. As it approached the day's open it looked like it was ready to keep going so I went with trend. Exited on the even dollar.

VECO

I am going to say that there was not enough consolidation for the breakout. It closed right at the prior high - maybe that should of been a clue? Not sure.

BLK

Crazy spread. Crazy moves. So hard to get out on these, best by far to avoid.

EQIX

My Achilles heel - classic example: entering positions at exactly the wrong time in a channel bound sequence, getting stopped at exactly the wrong time and reversing. The last try was something I never do, which was to add on a negative position, at the bottom of the channel. Heh. Still got stopped.

I am not sure how to get out of this type of trade cycle. On one hand, this shows that I am picking reasonable stops - right at S/R.

LPS

Another great exercise. Learning what momo looks like when it starts, when it ends.

NFLX

I have to say the same about this one - a good exercise. Each entry had direction, but I sat on it sometimes just to see what would happen. The 12:00 long was on thru three waves - something like $0.70 for the first two, then lower high followed by the collapse and stop. The objective today was not profit so much as how the price action behaves when the tide is turning.

AGU

Not sure how to call this. Probabilities? Lack of market support?

BUCY

Not a good entry, too far from consolidation and momo is spent. I should of waited for the pull back.

FCX

Entry is ok, just no market to support the breakout. Exit is due to the power outage and missing stop.

MCP

Flash. called it exactly wrong, but another one under my belt.

RGC

ALXN

CCSC

Crazy spread. I moved the stop down at 1:15 with the lack of movement. The long entry was a mistake, it marks where I had set the profit target (due to the crazy spread) and was filled right after the stop. I need to make sure I make those orders OCO. Best not to trade these period (+-$0.30 spreads...).

FLR

The first reverse was perfect.

MTB

Flash - and yes, caught the short before it went all the way down. I had ample time to trade, but I thought it might go further. Another opportunity to become familiar with these types of trades. The exit was due to the power outage.

SIAL