A few words before I present the revised trading plan/edge.
I want to be careful to avoid what has been my tendency: blaming the system rather than the person applying the system; and all that implies. Looking back at today, it is pretty clear that the plan was not applied properly, and that if it would of been things would of worked out pretty well. Two things came into play - I was doing research for my dissertation today while trying to trade, and I had 8 consecutive stops. I am not sure how much each of these contributed to the poor decisions I made today, but I would like to address both of them as part of the plan revision.
By consecutive stop number 5 today I was taking things personally. In an effort to avoid this: whenever I have 3 consecutive stops, I will take time to re-focus on the goal of being a consistent trader by reading Douglas' book (page 200), the 5 fundamental truths, and the 7 principals of consistency.
And... no more trying to do dissertation research while trying to trade. I was pretty stoked because my advisor and I decided on a direction for a topic yesterday (finally) and I am more than ready to close this chapter of my life (and move onto trading). So I was up late last night doing reasearch and thought I could continue the track today.When I told my wife over a quick lunch break that I had been stopped 4 times she said 'Well, you shouldn't be doing your research while trading.' Pfft. What does she know?
Evidently, a lot more than me. Until I can become consistent, the only allowed reading is Douglas' book, the 5 fundamental truths, and the 7 principals of consistency.
I was tempted to allow for some discretion (e.g., to avoid entries like the first one today - that I knew before I entered was doomed), but I decided against it, at least for the time being. I can't be sure at this point whether it is what I am actually seeing or what I want to see that I am responding to. So for now, no discretion, simply the plan:
My edge:
Only trade in the direction of the 15 minute trend (higher highs, higher lows = uptrend; lower highs, lower lows = downtrend). The 15 minute trend (or doji 'change of trend' signal) always dictates the direction of trade.
Enter a trade when there is a retracement to prior S/R on the 5 minute candle chart. The 5 minute candle should show indecision (long wicks), and the indecision should mark the return to or start of the intraday (15 minute) trend.
Stops are placed $0.03 off of the prior S/R, prior H/L or $0.11 from entry, whichever is greater.
If a trailing stop is triggered (15 min candles), consider reversing position.
Move the stop in step with the just completed 15 minute candle H/L.
Exit on the largest 15 minute candle of the day and declining volume on the 5 minute candle or when stopped.
When I have 3 consecutive stops in a row, I will re-focus on my goal of being a consistent trader by reading page 200 of Douglas' book and the 5 fundamental truths and 7 principals of consistent trading.
Not much different, a little more emphasis on the 15 minute.
Part of me reacts to such a regimented approach - but if Douglas is correct, the essence of all this is simply the practice of self-discipline: '...a mental technique to redirect (as best we can) or focus of attention to the object of our goal or desire, when that goal or desire conflicts with some other component (belief) of our mental environment.' And I want to be a consistent trader.
i like the idea of re-evaluating after 3 stop outs.
ReplyDeleteI used to do this exercise when I was seriously fed up, and it usually got me refocused on the fact that everything is probabilities.
ReplyDeleteI would stop trading regularly, trying my hardest to make money, and start this coin flip routine.
I picked a stock that was not stuck inside some range on the day (like actually moving), picked a reasonable stop loss amount (say the 5 minute 14 period ATR), and then picked a target amount that was greater then the stop. Thinkorswim is good for this because it allows you to automatically place a stop and target as soon as any trade is placed, but you don't need that.
I then had a little clock in the top right of my platform, and every five minutes, I would flip the coin and go long for heads, short for tails. If I still had on a position when the five minute mark rolled around, I would get flat and initiate the new signal, even if it was in the same direction. Every five minutes was a new trade, no matter what.
I did this for a couple hours on end, and after awhile, this simple systematic system starts to drill into you some of the principles Douglas talks about, or at least remind you of them.
You realize sometimes how you hope you will get heads because you think the market is going higher. You also see how often you are wrong as coin flips you think will never make money actually do. You sometimes want to exit early on a winning trade, adjust your stop loss and target levels after a near miss of your target, or many other impulsive behaviors.
Sometimes you end the day with a chunk of change from this exercise, and its almost comical how effortless it was (I always paper traded this). Other times you lose as the stock barely moves and you get continuous losses from the bid ask spread.
It may be worth giving a try for a couple hours, just to see what happens. It could be fun! You definitely have to care though, and be engaged, because nothing works if you are not involved in your results and process. What do you think?
Tarigal: Thanks for the input - definitely adds and makes a guy thing about 'the anything can happen' element in the trade.
ReplyDeleteI think for now I am going to keep pressing thru with Douglas' exercise, the more I do it, the more I realize how far apart what I want to believe and what I do believe really are; and how powerful and persuasive belief systems are.
But keep it coming - appreciate the feedback.