I don't think that my trades have hit above the 50% profitability mark over the last couple of weeks. Yes - my stops were tight today, but I don't think that was the entire problem. I need to get that % number up.
I have noticed that I tend to go in runs as well - I get a good/bad morning, or a good/bad afternoon. rarely do I get a mixed batch of trades throughout the day. I think this is saying something.
Today's trades for example, I had some well timed entries. But - I was thinking in terms of the wrong direction. For example on ADTN, my EOD analysis had two shorts - but I traded 4 times on the long side over the same time period. Why the discrepancy?
I was chatting with Fozz today about ADTN. I pointed out the 12:55 long to him (it was technically still lunch...) and he shared that he didn't see the entry - the chart was too unsure, at this point he thought it was stair-stepping down. I went ahead and entered because I felt good about it. After I got stopped, I went short, primarily based on the input he gave.
Now, EOD analysis says short all the way - with the first entry coming on the 11:15; which, as it turns out, is a breakdown of support. I could clearly see this EOD.
But - while I was trading today, I kept thinking long. I am thinking that this was my first assessment (which was right) and I didn't bother to re-assess after that; i.e., take into consideration the fact that the 11:15 broke thru prior support. Until Fozz pointed it out with his fresh pair of eyes. I think it was the first time he saw the chart.
I think this is hinting at an area in need of improvement - an ability to believe that anything can happen at any time. Technically, when the 11:15 broke, ADTN was heading back down. I didn't see this - at all - until Fozz pointed it out.
This would coincide with the win/loss streaks that I experience. When my initial assessment is right, it is right. But when it is wrong, I tend to keep going with the initial assessment.
Food for thought. Gonna try to wear those fresh eyes from now on.
One thing maybe to think about, is to identify what CANT happen. At first you might have some very broad ideas, like crashing 90% or what not, but try to think of it like you were looking over some other trader's shoulder. What does he think cannot happen? The, try using that information to trade. If he thinks the stock cannot keep going down because of how bullish it was earlier, and there is evidence that he is over committed, then you have a trade. Sometimes thinking about the opposite of what you are trying to instill in yourself is helpful. Remember, you are trading other PEOPLE, not moving averages or entries. The best insight into their thought process is your own.
ReplyDeletefresh eyes very very hard to do.
ReplyDeleteyou said something in the last post that made alot of sense. about getting stopped out on the first trade, then the direction is all screwed up. i totally agree. if you can nail the first entry and survive the first wave in your trade direction you are golden.
i lost the rest of my thoughts. later bro
Thanks for the input guys.
ReplyDeleteTarigal: I see what you mean - I hadn't thought of it quite like that before. Me being overcommitted to the long is probably a great indication that someone is over committed.
Fozz: so right about that first wave. Then be ready to change.
I think if I could sum the problem: it is more me having reluctance to change my mind rather than believeing anything can happen. A bief review of all the day's charts shows the same pattern; broken S/R, start of a new trend...