So - is this a problem with my edge? Or is it a problem with me?
I am sure I did over 20 trades today, fearlessly I might add, and I ended up negative.
Now what??
I look at Scott's trades today and I want to curl up in a little ball and suck my thumb. You can't put any metrics on what he did today on NZ and AKAM - not the 15, not the market (opposite directions, and relatively close to the same entry/exit times), not the EMA (Fozz got a fib to work on NZ) and both of them were spot on perfect. Maybe that is the problem - metrics and the objective rules I am trying to make.
According to Douglas, objective entries are the thing - objectively and apathetically trade my criteria. He doesn't mention exit criteria in that context though, he talks about scaled exits and accomplishing a 'risk-free' trade. I have been using an objective criteria. I am not quite ready to go the scaled exit setup, but that might be the thing.
Overall, I would say that I traded without expectations today. Perhaps the paper aspect of this (i.e., no monetary risk) is finally sinking in.
So that leaves the 'edge' (pfft.... what an edge...)
Here is a revision:
- 15 trend rules
- 5 signals the entry
- 15 trend rules
- 5 signals the exit
- Enter when it looks like the trend is going to continue or reverse
- Exit when the trend looks as if it is spent
Trade well....
i love it, "big (paper) hole"
ReplyDeleteyou got time to refine. although it would be nice, right now, i doubt the system will work everyday. as you get better and refine, the right brain will start recognizing those same inflection points that scott does. it will become natural. we know the ideas we have work. they work EOD, they work for scott, and they work for us as well when we time it properly.
patience grasshopper.
DTF-I say this in a nice way-The problem is with you and your edge. Your post is loaded with negative words and the feeling that the market owes you something. It doesn't.
ReplyDeleteYou have worked very hard and should be pleased for progressing as far as you have as fast as you have but there is still much to be learned about the markets and yourself. Like I said in my last post, a traders timetable and natures timetables are probably two different things. It will take as long as it takes. Take each day as it comes. Learn. Absorb. Reflect in quiet places. Practice your concentration skills. It all comes down to seeing the clues that the markets give you, selecting the correct course of action based on those signal and applying them. Seeing what the market is doing is for some people "not seeing the forest for the trees". The signals I saw were available to everyone. My chart setup and edge makes it easy for me to see them.
Here would be a good exercise to try: Print out numerous charts that feature chart patterns you would trade such as ascending triangles breaking to new highs, descending triangles breaking support to new lows, pullbacks, pop ups, dojis and make flash cards out of them. Isolate the important time that the stock makes that event happen - the break out. This is when time and momentum is on your side. Get someone to Flash these cards at you. Your goal is to instantly recognize what the pattern is and say the most probable course of action to take. You want to be able to do this instinctively. This will take time but should accelerate learning.
I'll do a post on this to clarify what I mean since it could help lots of people out.
ANyway don't give up , keep at it. Anything worth doing first extracts a price from you.
Thanks for the good words Scott.
ReplyDeleteYeah my 'edge' pretty much sucks.
I have no idea what these patterns are supposed to look like. Any suggestions for how to go about isolating some of these? Maybe trying to find the patterns on your charts?
A post on this would be humbling and incredible. A big thank you before it ever comes out.
Don't give up man, although I understand your frustration. One thing to remember is why Douglas put this exercise in the book in the first place. It was not to make money but to get to a point where you could easily go through it without feeling any resistance to reality.
ReplyDeleteRemember, THAT is the reason for the exercise, to get to a point where you feel no resistance. What do you have to do to get there? Where is the most resistance you feel while doing this exercise, and why?