End of Day Journal (9-30-10)

Summary:

Paper traded 200 share lots today:

Yipper. Fell apart at 3:00. Amazing how fast the money can roll out. Hypothetically, it can roll in just as fast as well - just be on the other side of my trades...

Largest stops:

NFLX for $0.66/share.

Largest wins:

NFLX for $1.10/share.

What a morning and early afternoon. I watched and traded. S/R breakouts and breakdowns, stocks changing directions. Things just clicked.

Then what happened?

So here is the deal. 2:55 rolled around and the Q's were starting to act funny. The thought entered my mind that S/R was starting to fall by the wayside and that I should stop right now and call it a day... for all of about 2 seconds. By 3:05 I had my first serious stop of the day (notice all the high stops are in the last hour) and thought I would try to get everything back. I proceeded to call absolutely everything wrong.

How can I go from having such a great morning and early afternoon to falling apart so drastically in the last hour? Why did I keep trading when I noticed the Q's were getting squirrely?

I think greed kept me in. Some interesting things happened. The morning had great entries and some decent exits, but the majority of the exits were early. I remember thinking to myself 'What if?' on the exits (as in what if they would keep going) but I must not of been very convincing. Then this afternoon I was thinking along the same lines 'Just believe' and ended up letting things get away (namely a $1 trade on NFLX that covered at $0.30, and a $0.80 trade that stopped for $0.45).  I think I was reacting to what I missed in the morning. Rather than paying attention to what was happening, I was bringing expectations. Bad move on my part. Because there was money - no doubt about it. I was positive on every entry.

Just the momo was missing.

The second thing that happened was that I was chatting... yes I know... how many times have I talked about this and how many times have I vowed not to do it again? Pfft. Chatting == no trading.

I am glad this is paper. So many things to discover about myself.

Why was I chatting? I was up $528 and I felt like telling someone. I enjoy the company. I enjoy the distraction. I enjoy calling the pivots (and IM'ing them rather than covering and reversing...)

This doesn't mix with trading. Maybe I should come up with something that closes NT whenever I open Skype. I need to think about why I do this some more, maybe I can figure something out.

A few encouraging things, came out of the meditation/visualization session and nailed it this morning. Paying attention to what was happening in front of me, and trading what I saw. Another thing I noticed, was that after I had some good profits, I started acting conservatively (e.g., all the early exits on the 11:30 longs and 11:55 shorts... NAILED those entries. Heh.). Again, not that this is bad - well, yeah, on second thought, it is bad. It is the difference between trading what is happening and trading out of FnG.

It is also encouraging that I actually had the thought to stop trading. I know I didn't act on it, but a guy has to start somewhere. Evidently I picked something up as charts turned into mush. Next step... errr... no chatting while trading (?).

Anyhoo - posting the charts - and all my shame. The last hour was a debacle, and by 3:40 I started doing very stupid things. As Fozz pointed out, probably the worst possible thing that can happen is that I do stupid trades and they work out. So no more of that stuff either. Urge to be stupid == go for a walk.

Lessons everyday. So much to learn, so much to learn.

When trading is easy, it really is easy. The big obnoxious elephant in the room is all about me and my stuff. Practice, practice, practice.

Cheers. Trade well.

Details:

I am going to just upload the charts and make them all big, no comments. They pretty much speak for themselves. I know what happened this afternoon, so no sense in reviewing. I think yesterday's chart review and revelation was a big milestone in my chart reading skills.

Fozz had some great charts this afternoon that I didn't trade.

Another thought (9-29-2010)

Still thinking about the day (see the earlier post if you missed it).

I don't think that my trades have hit above the 50% profitability mark over the last couple of weeks. Yes - my stops were tight today, but I don't think that was the entire problem. I need to get that % number up.

I have noticed that I tend to go in runs as well - I get a good/bad morning, or a good/bad afternoon. rarely do I get a mixed batch of trades throughout the day. I think this is saying something.

Today's trades for example, I had some well timed entries. But - I was thinking in terms of the wrong direction. For example on ADTN, my EOD analysis had two shorts - but I traded 4 times on the long side over the same time period. Why the discrepancy?

I was chatting with Fozz today about ADTN.  I pointed out the 12:55 long to him (it was technically still lunch...) and he shared that he didn't see the entry - the chart was too unsure, at this point he thought it was stair-stepping down. I went ahead and entered because I felt good about it. After I got stopped, I went short, primarily based on the input he gave.

Now, EOD analysis says short all the way - with the first entry coming on the 11:15; which, as it turns out, is a breakdown of support. I could clearly see this EOD.

But - while I was trading today, I kept thinking long. I am thinking that this was my first assessment (which was right) and I didn't bother to re-assess after that; i.e., take into consideration the fact that the 11:15 broke thru prior support. Until Fozz pointed it out with his fresh pair of eyes. I think it was the first time he saw the chart.

I think this is hinting at an area in need of improvement - an ability to believe that anything can happen at any time. Technically, when the 11:15 broke, ADTN was heading back down. I didn't see this - at all - until Fozz pointed it out.

This would coincide with the win/loss streaks that I experience. When my initial assessment is right, it is right. But when it is wrong, I tend to keep going with the initial assessment.

Food for thought. Gonna try to wear those fresh eyes from now on.

End of Day Journal (9-29-10)

Summary:

Today was a rough day.

I was about 15 minutes late for trading because I took the time to work thru the complete mediation/visualization routine. By the end of lunch I think NT was registering 39 trades with one 1 profitable trade. At 3:00 I was burned out and decided to place trades with no stops. I was aggravated, ticked off, and just wanted to see what would happen.

It didn't go well. Heh.


So, when it came time to do a blog entry, I decided to take all the charts that were on my watch list, turn the actual trades off, and go thru them all and mark entries from an EOD perspective. Almost nothing worked out this morning and I wanted to figure out what I was doing wrong with my entries. I then enabled entry viewing and reviewed everything for the Detail section.

As it turns out, my entries were dead nuts on. In fact, I have several that were better than EOD analysis (at least until the 3:00 point, which don't count). My exits weren't that great, and there were a few stocks (ADTN for one) that could of gone either way on the entries. But there were several where my stops were just too tight (CRM) and after I missed the initial entry I lost direction.

What to do?

I am going to try and limit the tight stops to fast momo candle changes and let other stops come in like they usually do. I think I may have been too focused on a tight stop rather than letting the price action tell me where to place the stop.


And one more thing. I was discussing with Fozz - the new TI scan setup (new highs/lows sorted by count, 2 windows for all day, 2 windows for periodic clearing) is giving me all kinds of trading options. Sticking to pretty charts and big movers is the way to go. Focus on them, let everything else go. I have a tendency to do this already (e.g., no trades on AAPL, AZO, and JKS today), but I think I could do a better job (e.g., CLF).

In summary - I was ready to give this trading gig up at EOD today, but after reviewing it looks like there is still some hope. And I can see progress from a couple of weeks ago.

Feel free to review, comment, critique, or pat me on the back =)

Trade well.

Details:

AAPL

No trade. Ugly chart.

ADTN

I see two entries.

I kept going long, expecting a return to the great looking morning. EOD I see support being broken on the bottom side for the rest of the day.

What should of been the clue?

The first three longs are all on EMA support and indecision on the 5 minute. There could probably even be an argument made for the 4th attempt as well. When this one failed I went short.

For now, I am going to use the 15 to call the momo in the morning spent (wide bars getting narrow with a top side wick). Not sure if this analysis will hold:

AMGN

EOD: I am calling a short on the 10:20 (before I usually start trading), and then two longs. By the time I get to the first long however, the chart is loosing some of the pretty factor.

Real trades: the long was a mistake, and I turned it around right away. I got stopped on the 12:15 and went long. I got stopped again and went short. And got stopped again.

At this point I am at 4 trades and according to the EOD analysis, I should be at one. The 12:15 long was good - resistance was broken, but the price returned. I was looking for momo and had a tight stop.

Looking at the difference between the 12:15 and the real break thru at 12:30, the 12:30 has a better volume bar - and perhaps that should be the signal - breaking S/R with volume.

Not a pretty later morning and rest of day chart, but I think the first long was viable:

AZO

I was watching it all day but the spread was crazy and the chart was ugly:

BHI

Humdinger. I actually traded this one better than the EOD analysis. Go figure.

Well... except for that last entry. And early on the exit I was too.

Interestingly enough, the support areas are marked by decreasing volumes:

CLF

Not a nice chart at all. I actually traded the last long, but by then I was in the no stop mode and let it come all the way back:

COG

Nice chart, no clear exit signal. There was some big short volume on the 12:15, but nothing came of it. I traded the last long and got bit:

CREE

First long is on lower volume. Next long is holding it's own. Exit on the 15. I went long on the 12:55, seeing some indecision on the 15:

CRL

I don't see much volume distinction on the real versus the failed breakthrus:

CRM

My stop was too tight. The chart lost all attraction by 12...

DD

Not a very nice chart, no movement. I was short at 2:55 but got stopped:

DO

Missed the first breakout, but caught it as it broke to new highs again. Then it came crashing back down.

Not sure how to call this chart. Volume uptick on the breakout and it didn't look back - until the 12:15 (big bump in volume)?

FLS

Ok up until my entries:

FSLR

Ugly & no entries.

FTI

Not a nice chart until late in the day. Pay no attention to the 3:00 on trades:

JKS

Not a nice chart, no trades. I think it caught my attention on the 11:00 momo:

LXK

Very nice. But of course I didn't trade it till the last breakthru. The breakthrus are not distinguished with volume:

MON

Choppy morning, but then registered some smoother action. I am calling the failed breakout a short opportunity, but I would be hard pressed to make that entry:

OIH

Breakouts not marked by volume:

RIG

Hmmm. Mixed bag. I traded the last breakout:

SNDK

Nice looking chart that deteriorated  after the morning session. I traded the 1:55 support - declining volumes again. Breakout on higher volumes - which I also traded  - failed:

SUN

TEN

Traded the short and got stopped before the candle change:

TSL

Nothing makes this chart attractive until it moves. I don't think I would of spotted it in time. Didn't trade it, and can't recall when I listed it:

UPL

Again - ignore the after 3:00 trades. Tight stop took me out of the first long:

URBN

Exit on the even dollar. I know this right?

ZMH

Not enough movement:

Addendum: 9-28-2010

After I shut the comp down last night, I realized that I had forgotten to add that I started the afternoon session with 30 minutes of mediation (a.k.a. mental and physical relaxation) and visualization.

I am going to go back and edit the entry to reinforce the importance of this for myself.

To be honest, my meditation sessions usually end up with me falling asleep - heh - but I can sense a difference.

As far as I can tell, the only difference yesterday in the morning and afternoon trading sessions was me.

End of Day Journal (9-28-10)

Summary:

Paper traded 200 share lots today:

Looking at the summary, I had a 28% win rate and grossed $1210.00. Number of trades was back up. Stops appear to be within acceptable limits for the most part.

Largest stops:

BIDU at $0.25/share.

Largest wins:

BIDU at $0.75/share.

What happened today? Pretty much a down trending morning and uptrending afternoon... It seems I go in spurts...

All I can say about the morning is that I was out of my element. I felt tired, worn out from some personal extended family drama, and didn't find time for meditation or visualization this morning. When I sat down to trade, I thought to myself - 'I don't feel so good about this.'

It quickly became apparent that my intuition (about myself) was spot on.

If I could use a chart to sum up the morning, I would use MTB; thought BIDU would be a close second.  

Looking at BIDU's chart, I think it is easy to see a connection to TNA's from a few days ago - me not believeing what I was seeing and trying to find the turn around.

What happened over the afternoon?

I took a break: I started the afternoon session with 30 minutes of mediation (a.k.a. mental and physical relaxation - or, DTF falling asleep) and visualization.

As far as I can tell, the only difference yesterday in the morning and afternoon trading sessions was me.
The meditation generally consists of affirmations or an audio relaxation lesson. I practice the visualizations when I am done with the meditation or during the mediation in the case of the relaxation method. I can tell a definite difference in the way I feel when I am done.

So... the importance of being in touch with myself. And of visualization. And of meditation.

Trade well.

Details:

AAPL

This was a sad entry. AAPL made two tremendous drops and when the market started dropping at 2:30, I thought AAPL was due for another quickie. All well and good, but the stop was not placed (NT's ATM balked... might be the two series that I have on a chart, I am going to check this tomorrow) and I goofed when I placed the manual stop, and doubled the position. Anyhoo:

ACXM

I liked the smooth morning action on this one. Ironically, I bought right at the top. The arrow marks where I considered going long, but had too much going on:

AEM

AMED

AVP

Keep watching:

BCR

Clear exit signal on the 12:55 short:

BEC

Marked it with the arrow for later review, then decided to jump in anyways. The exit left a lot to be desired:

BIDU

Pfft. I drew the ascending at EOD as I was reviewing. The first short was a great entry. But the next candle is screaming long. Fought it all the way up, and when I finally got the direction right I got stopped out. The candles don't look that bad, but zooming in shows a lot of wick. The signal of the day of course is the 2:00 doji on the 15. I missed it:

CGNX

DLB

FCX

FLR

HNR

KCI

LH

MON

The difference between the morning and the afternoon? For sure not the stock... plenty of movement to be had...

MTB

Early exit on the long, ($1.10 total) and $0.97/share and I watched it come all the way back... wasn't in tune this morning...

NEM

NKE

NTAP

OIH

Arrow at the top. The short later in the day was a good call, but the market was taking everything up.

PWRD

RGLD

The arrrow was calling a short entry. The long... this is why a guy should hold until the flash: up $0.50 from the exit. Need to remember, market or flash exit: 

RRC

Exited, but hooped back on board with the EOD rally:

SYK

VECO

Didn't trade, but was on the list. Great breakout pattern:

WAG

Not much of a breakout, but with the gap open I thought we had potential:

ZMH

Up and down. Nice chart: