"An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made, in a narrow field."

- Niels Henrik David Bohr

Friday, June 4, 2010

End of Day Journal (6-4-2010)

Summary:

A mixed day. For the most part I traded very well, but jumped the gun on some returns to the trend, and some late TNA 'no-clear-signal' trading turned the day negative at -$29.00.




The trailing stop kicked in several times today. I didn't have it set right on the first few, so the profit was some 5 ticks off of what it should have been. It cost me money nearly every time (e.g., the stock was still headed in the expected direction), and I am sure realizing even 50% of the money left on the table would have put me significantly higher for the day. I think for now though, I will keep the settings as is - again, much better this way than to realize the gain/reverse/loss. I realized that 25 ticks is a little generous, so I am moving the first adjustment to 15 profit stop at a 20 tick gain, then move the stop up 5 for every 15 in additional profit. I don't know what I am doing, but I need to go with something that won't have me flinching or cringing.

Maybe I just need to let my momo reading skills mature.

Also, after the review, I have decided to go with a minimum stop of 15 ticks. There were 6 trades that were in the right direction, but got stopped when I moved the stop in tighter. This would have put the w/l trade ratio at 14/20 rather than 10/24. I can't be sure how the trailing stop would of handled the profits, but there was more than enough to grab.

One additional thing to consider: today's break kept me out of the big downward afternoon trend. It was hard to find a place to jump on (granted I did find two that I exited for some reason). Not sure what to make of this, just throwing it out there.

Have a great weekend!


Details:


APC - couldn't of played this better, just wasn't meant to be (-$14.00):



BIDU - I think I was giving the stop some breathing room above the prior high (-$17.00):



CF - trailing stop came into affect here; over 40 more ticks to the high (+$12.00):


CMI - Minimum stop would of stayed in play (-$9.00):


CRM - I just kept calling this one wrong. I am scratching my head over the first entry, what was I seeing? The 12:40 long was on the market uptick, thinking CRM was behind the curve. Consideration of volume on the Q's may have kept me out. The 12:55 short was a chase, coming in on the 0:53 mark; not enough for me to be making that decision (-$83.00):


DNDN - short on the market. Reversed and got stopped. A better play would have been the exit, then post buy limit on the underside of the doji. So easy to say in hindsight, at the risk of losing out on the move completely. Minimum stop would have stayed in for the delayed rebound (-$9.00):


DRQ - the trailing stop cost me some 80 ticks at best. Minimum stop would have kept me in the game - but this was a discretionary 'I have misgivings' exit... (+$8.00):


ETN: the first short was on the same bar as CRM. Looking back now, I think I noticed the down trend, and anticipated the return. The second time was a better choice coming on the indecision (just prior to the next candle), but still stopped.  I could of kept holding this one without a problem stop wise, but I don't have a very good track record.  Better to take the profits and look for another chance to enter. Minimum 15 tick stop would have benefited the second short (+$23.00):



FDX - looks like another attempt at an 8:40 short. Should of kept watching all of these (-$11.00). 15 tick minimum stop good here.:


PNC: a 15 tick minimum stop would have been good for some 60 ticks at the 9:45 low (-$7.00):


PXD - minimum stop here would have yielded nearly 90 ticks at the 11:55 low. Bad thing is, this was a discretionary exit. I had misgivings after I entered for some reason (-$3.00):



SRS - new highs, and thought it might want to finish strong (-$12.00):


TNA... pffft. One of those rare days... I actually came out positive on it... go figure...

First short hit the 15 tick min. Second hit a 13 tick stop (no basis, just brought it down for some reason). Exited on the next short on a discretionary, and went back in after confirmation. Went long on the next candle, and the trailing stop kicked in.

The 12:00 long was on the candle change, coming off some indecision in the market. The next long exited on the trailing stop x2.  The short on the 12:15 exited on the trailing, and I re-entered as it re-traced and stalled. This one got stopped on a generous stop. All the others just didn't work, and in retrospect, should not have been traded. The only potential signal was a short on the 12:40 (+$83.00):


VECO (-$5.00):


VMW - exited on the trailing, potentially some 40 ticks on the 11:55 low (+$15.00):

4 comments:

  1. nice change. i'm burnt from missing opportunities. you seem to do really well at finding these great movers. stay positive brother. next week, we are killing it. i'm going to focus on the $5,0000 number all weekend and figure out what i need to do to get there. if i end up with 10% of that by the end of the day, it would be fantastic. i just need to get over this $100 mental hump. although, lately the hump has been just to have a positive day. silly me.

    ReplyDelete
  2. did you see scott's TNA short from thursday, the 1042 posting? he shorted mid freakin' candle and nailed the top of the move. unreal. you were telling me the other day about how he sometimes goes mid-candle and then i saw that trade and thought, wow, that dude is good.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Holy cow... I just checked that out...

    I am telling you dude - he says 'Markets thou shalt go down' and they all rush down... unreal.

    It almost looks like he was using the previous high as a resistance level. That takes a ton of confidence. Going to try and start watching for that on my EOD charts.

    Still working on this new layout, not at all sure about it. A lot of things not working.

    ReplyDelete
  4. damn man, i am fired up for tomorrow. i've been going through my trades since the beginning of the year (only made it to mid-feb so far) and am laughing at all the stupid entries and exits i had. it all seems so easy looking back. i know that is the usual, but i actually feel like it was so easy to trade it properly. in fact, i was dragging a paper across the screen to hide the next candle in the chart, and literally just calling the direction per each candle. ie. long, long, long, look to cover, cover, short, short, short, cover, long. i am going to just be taking each 5 minute candle as it develops. just trade the plan, wait for the signals, and take that money!

    ReplyDelete