"An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made, in a narrow field."

- Niels Henrik David Bohr

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

End of Day Journal (4-27-2010)

Another glitch filled first hour of the day, but I got things ironed out and managed to get some trades in. Here is an account performance report (courtesy of NT):


A pretty good day, but it could have been better. I started off with 1000 share entries (30k cash, 60k margin, all on paper) with a $0.07 stop loss and a $0.08 auto breakeven. I was stopped out several times with some major slippage. And I had some awesome entry points.

Here are the charts:
Long entry on ESV (expecting the failed new low and reverse), stopped, reversed, stopped. Missed the nice drop. Shorted (??huh?) at 8:35 with a stop.


(Vertical arrows are entries, horizontal are exits).

Short on APC (after the ESV and definite market momo action), bailed at the 8:30, attempted to re-enter and stopped:



Short on USG, exited a tad early, re-entry on the next bar and exit on the following (whoot!) (after APC the account was at +$1226):



Tried a little too hard on X, with long candles, plenty of volume, new lows - I thought - 'Why not?' Fizzled and then the tight stops became a problem (stop, re-entry, stop re-entry, and tried to get some long action). Quite a bit of slippage on the exits - the account was down to +$593 after this debacle - not including commissions.... :


Short on SNDK - and panicky exit (a little jittery after X):


Tried to catch VMW coming off a bounce - thank you stop:



That was it for the morning. Quite remarkable how similar the basic shapes of most of those charts are. The afternoon session started with the account at +$504. I had had enough with the tight stops, I am not good enough with the entry timing yet. I switched to 500 share entries and $0.12 stop loss for the afternoon and kept the auto breakeven the same.

Failed new high on EL... well didn't fail, but I bailed prior to hitting the stop:


Failed new low on ADS, I thought the volume was too low for the reverse:


I bailed on an ATI new low after considering the volume. Should of thought of this prior to entry:


Shorted BHI, auto breakeven kicked in, and stopped out. I reversed and finally called it quits at 11:54:



Failed new low on BAX, finally bailed at 11:34. In hindsight I should of reversed, but the volume was not convincing enough when I exited. Maybe the EMA's should have been an earlier clue?




Sometime after this I decided to bump up the auto break-even trigger to $0.10.

BVN popped up on the TDA alert with a long bar and new high. I went long, but didn't hang on. I re-entered, and left early again. Tried a short on the reverse, stopped, reversed, then bailed early again. The last two positions coincided with new lows on SPY, and I did not feel that good about the chances. In retrospect I could of done much better, but I think I would probably do it the same again:



Auto-break even kicked in on the first TNA short on a new low (it had not been adjusted yet). I re-entered (I thought it still looked good as evidenced by the pink entry on the second candle) only to stop out:


Shorted the new low on AIG. Attempted to reverse and stopped out on the 12:05. Reversed again, and bailed before the stop - and too early:



Alert on COP, went long, stopped, tried to reverse, stopped, and auto-break even kicked in. I should have kept watching:



Shorted JCG on the new low, exited a little on the early side, but done for the day:



The tight stop loss, combined with the slippage - and me trying to make things happen - on X put a big dent in the account. That can be remedied and I think the afternoon session reflected the changes. I am sure both it and the auto-break even will still need some adjustment.

I like the hard stop loss - as the day progressed I found myself thinking more about where the $0.12 stop loss would put the stop graphically on the chart, and I found myself trying to time the entries so that the stop would correspond with near term support. I think this can only get better.

Some early exits, primarily on BVN - which was going against the flow. I caught most of the moves on the late afternoon action - it could have been better, but - I can't expect to get it perfect.

NT's market analyzer had some pretty colors this afternoon:


This was at 3:45. There were times when more than half of the LastMinusLow column was at 0. I couldn't time the capture.

98 trades but this reflects the partial fills as separate orders.35.7% of them were profitable. I guess there is something to cutting the losers and letting the winners run - even as badly as I executed it today.

Still working on NT's beta problems - but when things work well, they work very well. So I think I am going to stick with it.

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