End of Day Journal (7-2-2010)

Summary:

The new computer was delivered yesterday which took time away from getting an entry posted. I have it all set up this morning: extremely quiet and crazy fast. Incredible setup.

I traded 200 share lots today - as Tarigal put it '...only makes sense to focus on consistency over $$$'. I scaled up a few times on direction.

I finished the day positive at  around $75 (NT's performance read and subsequent details are all without commission. I have to dig deeper for the real numbers if I don't grab them the day of the trades):

 Cumulative profit based on exit time:

 Profit based on entry time (per trade):

I decided to distinguish between the cumulative profit based on exit because I held the ADS position for several hours and it was the biggest winner. All the prior cumulative profit charts were based on entry times, which happened to be fairly close to exit time. I also added the per trade profit vs time of entry. Some relationship between time of day that I enter a position and trading performance may eventually show up. Actually - it probably doesn't have to be that complicated - I should immediately start being much more judicious during the east coast lunch break.

I have a very difficult time trading days like Friday. Perhaps the biggest problem is the inability to distinguish between real moves and noise; or when to scalp and when to let it run. I was exhausted by end of day - emotionally, physically, and mentally. ADS was a bugger to hold onto, not sure that I can explain exactly why I did. It is so easy to look back on the Friday's charts and see that the market was range bound for the late morning/early afternoon, but it is hard for me to tell what is going on in the moment.

Maybe I am making it too difficult - if there is any doubt with respect to good movement, I should start calling it no movement. When there is movement - it is very easy to spot. The more I think about it, the more sense that makes. I like that idea.

FYI: that is the way this blog works, I haven't thought all of this out before I type it up. The thinking happens as I type, hence the mixed mumbo jumbo this blog is at times. Pfft.

 So - new rule: when in doubt about market movement, the market is not moving. Assess the market at 7:30, and again at around 9-ish, and then again at around 10:45-ish. Don't try so hard to find new direction over the east coast lunch break.

How about that late morning/early afternoon chop? Specifically the 11:05 pop thru the range on the Q's; the fail, the 12:05 pop, drawback and then 12:40 rally:

The 12:40 rally had me feeling sick inside lol. At the time it seemed way out of line, I kept saying no way and it went on to finish on a solid top. So much for my momo reading ability.

After the 11:05 closed below what I was calling the top of the resistance (Q's), I was thinking that the sense of balance was finally restored to the market - it was headed back down. It dropped for two candles, didn't come close to what I was calling support, then almost gained it all back on one green candle. One example of my bias, and I was carrying it the rest of the afternoon.

Funny how that can happen. Here I am trying to remain open, yet giving too much weight to my opinions on the overall market. Looking at the volume on the drop there was not a lot of conviction. I recall noticing that, but the move down was affirmation of my bias - the lack of volume was just an obnoxious detail that didn't really matter. Turns out it did.

The ability to be in the moment, what a thought. It is almost like a trader has to constantly assess the market, make a decision about the market, but then be ready to change his mind about the market. Heh - does that sound familiar?

Part of the problem is that a guy has to be early on moves, if you are not, then the risk goes up considerably. The need to anticipate moves and yet be ready for whatever comes takes a lot of energy.

A trade on the 11:05 should have gone something like:  good volume on the way up, approaching resistance,  watch for additional movement or change in direction. The shorter bar and retrace back thru resistance, and gap down on the next open shows lack of conviction. Go short. nice bar coming down, but low volume, another red bar on low volume and approaching the slow EMAs, watch for an exit.

Instead I was like: The morning showed market weakness, the market has no business going up. See - it failed to break thru the resistance, finally headed down where it belongs. See - two red candles, the volume will catch up... as I tighten my gut and continue to hold all the way up the green candle, my conviction turning into this 'No way... no way! NO WAY!' and exiting as the next candle gaps up, right back where I started.

The market is there to read - I need to develop my 'in the moment flexibility'. Some careful balance between overall market bias and in the moment reading. Lotsa practice - but hey, I have a new flow mantra to practice with. Whoot!

Have a great weekend.

Details:

ABX (+$3):

ADS: HFT games on this one. Not sure if the 8:30 spike is completely legit, but I was filled at 11 ticks over the stop. In this kind of a market I should of opted for the stop limit - and I should of jumped right back in.  (+$302.19):

AGN: the lack of follow thru on the market should have been a signal to avoid the double up on the first entry. Likewise on the third entry - the lack of market support should have been a signal to avoid the reverse. Expecting weakness that didn't show up on the 10:15 short (-$53.74):

APOL: Not the best decision to enter; looking for continued market weakness (-$22):

BTU (-$11.50):

CF: I can't pull up the orders from yesterday, so I am not sure where the stops were; the losses were comparatively heavy (3 at 20 ticks) but visually they look all right. Looks like I picked a direction, stopped and reversed, all of 3 times (-$133.94):

CLF (-$29.45):

ETR: Big spike down and with the volume I expected it to go back up. When it didn't I decided to go with the flow. Only the flow wasn't happening... Low liquidity (-$40.90):

GG: Heh - is there a lesson here? Exiting when I shouldn't? Maybe... Keep watching? Probably would have re-entered after the 9:30 broke the the prior open or low. But I am guessing my stop would have been hit. Maybe best just to let it ride out. Naw - I am being too critical/analytical here, best to be in the moment (-$1.98):

IDT: Big volume on the doji and I was thinking a turn around... wrong. This had me hesitating on the next entry (-$1.98):

LVS: first entry was the short. My lack of experience shows up on this one, the long wick should of had me looking for a positive exit. Market weakness kept me out of the 8:45 reverse, but that was a large enough move that I should of been considering it - it was large enough for me to exit; one of the largest candles on the chart (-$9.94):

PCX: With the Q's right at and hinting a new low, I thought an entry was appropriate (-$14):

RSH: Nasty bit of business at the top: short, stop, long, stop, short again. Long and then short on the bottom, both stopped. Then long with a discretionary. Went long as it broke the high, then short as it failed. Fizzle (+$187.48):

SHPGY: Discretionary as the momo fizzled, then short again on the same candle as it broke thru; but it was done. I tried a couple of more times and shook out (-$39.96):