"An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made, in a narrow field."

- Niels Henrik David Bohr

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

End of Day Journal (12-7-10)

Summary:

Live trading on 50 share lots:




Good day today - always could of been better... I sold as stops were hit on NFLX (learning to recognize what this looks like) and buyers ventured in to stop me out. I re-entered as they gave way. I was looking for the gap to be filled and I was up over $2/share on NFLX... then it began to trickle back up. I sat on it convinced that the selling was not done. It re-traced within $0.10 of the stop (which I had move down to break even) before the selling kicked back in. Heh. I took the +$1.80 then as it stalled a little. Good enough for me.

I don't want to be pre-sumptuous - but volume on the range charts is very telling. Volume spiking or dropping to nothing is very revealing when taken in context - or at least it seems to be. Volume based S/R holds a lot of sway throughout the day. The EOD chart analysis has been very helpful.

As a quick overview - I turn off my trades and spread out the chart so I can see the entire day. I then note the opening, and first show of volume (usually bumping above the volume MA) and what the price context was for the candle on that volume. Then I note any spikes in volume and mark them as future S/R (dotted orange line). I then return to price action and attempt to characterize the high volume price candles and the activity around them and usually draw trend lines. I check every shorter range chart (the 20) for horizontal 'volume stutter' and mark it as either occurring at the bottom or top of the local 20 range move. I do this by placing the red diamond stutter marker either above or below the price. After the review I turn on the trades for the image snapshot. These markers are automatically plotted on the larger range charts. I am sure that I miss a lot, but it is interesting how much shows up when I actually stop to take a look at it.

On a side note - yesterday and today have seen me unconsciously moving away from the 'crossing the MA on color' approach. I am not sure what this means - I have not thought about while I am trading - at all... I am not sure what this means and I am a little reluctant to call it good. I mean - it is the direction that I eventually want to go, but I didn't expect it to happen unconsciously or this quickly. At the same time - I don't want to fight it, or curb the naturalness of it. Stay tuned.

I did the review on the top three ATR's on the MA: NFLX, CMG, AAPL. These three show up a lot. In an attempt to broaden my perspective/price action basis, I then picked the top symbol on the new highs (sorted by count) list which happened to be CML. Given the shorter ATR on CML, I am posting both the 45 and 20.  

Trade well.

Details:


AAPL


CMG


CML



NFLX

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